Canada’s annual rate rose unexpectedly to a seven-month high in May. On Wednesday June 18th Consumer price index came out at 2.1% YoY vs the expected 1.2%. Statistics Canada said the annual rate hit 2.4% on increased prices for vegetables and durable goods.
This is the first time since October 2018 that the annual rate had exceeded the Bank of Canada’s 2.0% target.
Economic signals have been mixed in recent months. The Bank of Canada put interest rate hikes on hold in October amid a slowing domestic and global economy and now with the release of recent figures analysts predict the Bank of Canada would not be cutting interest rates anytime soon.
The United States added fuel for the bears on a USD/CAD sell off. FOMC Chairman Powell made a statement, following Canadas CPI shortly on Wednesday the 19th, regarding the Central banks plans for . The statement was dovish and USD fell across the board.
Although there hasn’t been a significant slowdown in the labor market, retail sales increased in May and spending in April was revised from negative to positive, trade war tensions between the US and China make the CB weary with heightened concerns that , manufacturing activity, trade and business investment will fall further. Whether the CB lowers interest rates and by how much will greatly depend on the outcome of the US and China leaders meeting next week at the G20 summit, to see if there are any developments in the deal to end this trade war.
4H TF shows us that yesterday, our lines intersected and has reversed. The price broke the 9 down and we currently have a powerful downtrend.
The price is currently approaching February lows .
As a result, a break below 1.3150 may bring the pair lower to the next target of 1.3126. On the other hand, any break above 1.3250 could rally the price towards 1.3289. Considering the daily resistance levels along the way.