quantguy

The USD Rallies Against CAD on Good US Data and NAFTA

Long
FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
USDCAD has been extremely bullish lately, on extremely strong manufacturing data today. It has retraced all of its losses which were caused by CAD strength due to hopes for successful NAFTA negotiations. Currently, Trump has made numerous hints that Canada may not even be a part of NAFTA anymore, and the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau has fired back saying that he’d rather not be a part of NAFTA than have a deal that didn’t benefit Canada.

The current price of USDCAD is 1.3178, which is dangerously close to the upper bound of the Kovach Reversals indicator at 1.3186. We should definitely see some resistance at this level.

Technical analysis for USDCAD is as follows. Volatility is lower than usual, but not to an extreme. The RSI indicates that we are in a bull trend, but not overbought yet. The MACD is above the signal line, but not to an extreme. This suggests we may have more room to appreciate. USDCAD is under the 50 period SMA, which is currently at 1.31, indicating bearishness. The ADX does not indicate a trend, i.e. we are ranging.


Bull Score: 2 Bear Score: 1 Ranging Score: 2

The technical analysis for USDCAD intraday is very strong. We see many indications of a strong bull trend. It would be wise to buy on a dip.

The technicals for USDCAD intraday are as follows. Volatility is slightly higher than usual, but not to an extreme. The RSI indicates that we are in a bull trend, but not overbought yet. The MACD suggests that we are in a bullish phase but not overbought yet. USDCAD intraday is above the 50 period SMA by quite a bit, suggesting that we are overbought. Also, USDCAD intraday is above the 100 period SMA by quite a bit, suggesting that we are overbought. Finally, the 50 period SMA is even with the 100 period SMA, indicating longer term ranging. The ADX indicator is at 64, which suggests a strong bull trend for USDCAD intraday.

Intraday, the Kovach OBV and the Kovach Chande are quite strong, necessitating that one wait for a pullback before entering a trade in this product.

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