Short from 1.2764, eyeing 1.26...

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
The bearish pulse continued to beat in the USD/CAD market on Wednesday. After breaking out of the H4 ascending channel formation, the pair retested the underside of the lower edge as resistance and extended lower, influenced further following the release of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting.

Following on from Wednesday’s report where we highlighted a possible shorting opportunity should a H4 bearish candle (full or near-full bodied) take shape after retesting the underside of the H4 channel support, the team took a sell at 1.2764 and placed a stop above the candle’s wick 1.2788. We liquidated the majority of our position once price came into contact with 1.27 and moved the stop-loss order down to 1.2735. Well done to any of our readers who jumped aboard this move alongside us!

Suggestions: With the daily trendline support etched from the low 1.2061 now out of the picture, both weekly and daily timeframes show room to push lower. The closest support structure can be seen on the daily timeframe at 1.2598.

As you can see, there is a clear bearish feel to this market right now, and this is why we’re holding a portion of our position. If you missed the initial sell, however, you may be given a second chance. A decisive H4 close below 1.27, followed up with a retest and a H4 bearish candle (again full or near-full bodied) would, in our experience, be enough to warrant a sell down to 1.26, located just two pips ahead of the aforementioned daily support.

Data points to consider: US banks will be closed in observance of Thanksgiving Day; Canadian retail sales data at 1.30pm GMT .

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.2764 ( stop loss: 1.2735). Watch for H4 price to engulf 1.27 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle to form following the retest – preferably a full or near-full-bodied candle – is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).
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