There is a moderate divergence evident on the USD CAD daily. Now, the is a , and momentum has clearly reduced of late. This is seemingly no impediment to USDCAD seeking a higher high. Steep drop , slow rise to exceed the swing high has been how things have been playing out for a while.
Some points against setting a new higher high:
- The present price action is very similar to previous price action (also labelled ABCDE) that terminated in a steep price drop ,
- divergence is appearing,
- I generally don't follow fundamentals, however, Canada is reporting jobs growth, and consumer spending gains (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/05/fad-...) while the US can be seen to be in a minor down-trend regarding jobs growth, Q1 GDP growth is at the lower end of the range in the past 10 years, and consumer spending is also down. In comparison, in the US, consumer spending on durable goods reduced in the last quarter - reducing GDP growth by 0.14% (https://www.fb.org/market-intel/decent-g...).
- The January 2016 high appears to mark the end of the up-trend and has been followed by more than 3 years of consolidation. I would expect the next major trend to be in the direction of parity between the USD and CAD.
Why am I writing this? Because I entered a short trade before looking at the news / fundamentals. After doing so, I am comfortable with my position. As always, it will be interesting (and hopefully profitable) to see how it turns out.
The blue box just denotes support and is the width between the wave i top and the wave iv base.
Thanks for viewing.