This is a refinement of the previous chart, written up after Friday's trading. I believe we have found a bottom, and seem to have established a new, hourly swing based on the wick/failed breakout from Friday (30Apr). Several Fib. retraces/extensions are plotted out here, mostly from the 1H & 4H charts. Of note, on the 4H chart, the wick topped out at the MA18 and terminated at the EMA8 during Friday's spike. The long position I've plotted here is what I hope will be the worst case scenario for trading on May 2nd to 3rd, with a target of 1.23027. A wick below this long plot is not out of the question for trading from Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.
You also will notice the bat-like pattern following a bullish divergence. A bullish cross occurred Friday (30Apr21 @0600EST).
Once this bottom has a little more time to establish itself, I believe we will get a bullish move that I expect to run at least to 1.23421 and perhaps much further. Ideally, we get a retest of the 0.618 on the current (+1), bullish, 1H swing with an eventual, short-term target of 1.23543 (1.618). If that holds, we could see a full or nearly full retrace of the accelerated drop which began around 1.239 to 1.23959. The white boxes indicate the usual time of the mornings for weekday (Monday & Tuesday) trading in which volumes should be elevated, typically peaking from 8 AM to 10 AM EST, though there are occasional volume spikes from noon to 2 PM EST. I will be watching for another bullish impulse no later than that first (Monday) box.
The breakdown range for another move down is 1.22602 to 1.22611. If this does not hold, expect further down side.
SL range should be from 1.22664 to 1.22708, unless you're brave enough to take a chance on a harder wick down to start the week.
Entries up to 1.22776.
@lockhartT @Vez_Will
You also will notice the bat-like pattern following a bullish divergence. A bullish cross occurred Friday (30Apr21 @0600EST).
Once this bottom has a little more time to establish itself, I believe we will get a bullish move that I expect to run at least to 1.23421 and perhaps much further. Ideally, we get a retest of the 0.618 on the current (+1), bullish, 1H swing with an eventual, short-term target of 1.23543 (1.618). If that holds, we could see a full or nearly full retrace of the accelerated drop which began around 1.239 to 1.23959. The white boxes indicate the usual time of the mornings for weekday (Monday & Tuesday) trading in which volumes should be elevated, typically peaking from 8 AM to 10 AM EST, though there are occasional volume spikes from noon to 2 PM EST. I will be watching for another bullish impulse no later than that first (Monday) box.
The breakdown range for another move down is 1.22602 to 1.22611. If this does not hold, expect further down side.
SL range should be from 1.22664 to 1.22708, unless you're brave enough to take a chance on a harder wick down to start the week.
Entries up to 1.22776.
@lockhartT @Vez_Will
Comment:
We got our impulse past 1.23421 Tuesday (4 May), though we still haven't had a true breakout on the daily. Monday (3 May) was a laggard. Still expecting a run to 1.24 or higher, which may begin as soon as 5 May.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Fundamentals may have broken down this accumulation/consolidation. Price is pushing into a band of monthly resistance.
Comment:
This trade may have been the victim of some SL hunting. Might be worth a re-entry.
Comment:
Broke down through the monthly support. Bearish outlook for now. May reassess at a later date.
Entry range: 1.22743 to 1.22767
SL range: 1.22663 to 1.22708
Target: 1.23317 or higher (R/R = 5.29 or higher)