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ANALYSIS: USDCAD - Time To Retrace? Or Continue the Trend?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
This pair is nestled against the MAJOR resistance level that dates back to October, 2008. That's 7 years ago, folks! It took this pair 7 YEARS to again reach back to this point! Do you think this level MAY cause some kind of reaction in prices? Or do you think that prices will just ignore it and blow right on through? We're about to find out in this next 7-10 days aren't we (that's end of the month for those wondering why I'm stating that time frame). So let's begin....

WHAT'S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW?
So in the chart above, what I'm showing is 2 patterns in the short 15M TF. I'm showing this TF for a good reason which I talk about later (yes, you'll NEED to get through my LONG ASS post to get to that!) There is a bearish bat and a bullish butterfly bracketing the current PA (as of this posting). Which way will prices go? I'll tell you....either up or down! Well I hope you weren't holding your breath waiting for me to tell you! Cause I can't! No one can! Can only watch, wait and react when the time is right.

But I can tell you that IF prices keep heading down towards the bullish butterfly , then that will negate the bat pattern since prices will go past the bat's A and C points. But if prices head up towards the bat FIRST, then the butterfly remains valid for later. Now, just keep that bat pattern in mind. I'll come back to it.

OVERVIEW - Monthly Chart
Back in my last analysis on this pair, I drew your attention to a Cup&Handle pattern that was developing on the monthly chart. At that time, I speculated that the handle had already been formed and that it was a very short handle since prices had not retraced back to the 38.2% retrace of the previous uptrend as might be expected of handles. In this new analysis, I am now thinking that the handle has NOT YET been formed and that prices could now retrace back down to form that handle. Keep in mind this is a MONTHLY chart so if it does try to form that handle, it'll be MONTHS in the making.
snapshot

DAILY CHART
What I show here is a large POTENTIAL bearish crab pattern . But if you'll notice, in order for this crab to complete, it would need to decisively break through the MAJOR resistance overhead. So though I drew it here because it is there, chances are not strong that it will complete anytime soon.
snapshot

CURRENT ACTION
This brings us back to the 15M main chart and those 2 patterns: the butterfly and the bat. Right now (as of this post), prices are tracing down towards the bullish butterfly . But will it get there? But if prices reverse again and head back up, then this is the kind of price action I'd rather see because believe it or not, is a bearish-type price action!

Let me explain. It may seem counter-intuitive that if prices start heading back up in the direction of the main trend that it would be considered BEARISH price action? That depends on the situation for sure! In this case, prices have already hit and failed to break through some resistance of some kind. In this case, a MAJOR resistance level dating back 7 years ago. In this kind of situation, what happens more times than not, prices will retrace back to the .786/.886 retrace of the initial decline away from the resistance and then turn back around and drop from thereYou'll see this kind of thing happen time and time again! And I belive it will happen here. This is why the bearish bat is significant here because it graphically represents EXACTLY the kind of price action I just described. Bat's have a .886 D point which fits perfectly with this kind of price action.

CONCLUSION:
So I am expecting that the overhead MAJOR resistance will hold and send prices tumbling back down. For how long and how far? That is a question for another post!
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dangap
a year ago
Nice, really like the time and effort you put into your post too!

On the daily I have a butterfly pattern with a D leg completion right at that resistance point in 08. Although price has pushed back just back a little during the last 24hrs I'm hoping for a retest back up into 1.3047ish then my limit order will be hit. Of course as we know price could just break above close above and keep on going. Anyway that's my 2 cents worth.
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EverythingForex PRO dangap
a year ago
I don't see any butterfly pattern. Can you post a chart?
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JasonSong
a year ago
This is really a thorough analysis. Thank you and I will follow this pair.
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Just a heads up for those that are following this trade opportunity. I am already in this trade SHORT by way of the .786 retracement. Not because of the potential bear bat. If the bear bat does complete, I'll add another position.

For those that would like me to do a post on the .786 trade technique, let me know and I'll do one.
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