__SpecialFX__
Short

Candles, Channel & Wave Count Calling for Reversal

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
a year ago
USDCAD             is at an inflection point where it can pull back and retrace against the move up from 1.3038

Most of my trade setups for the entire month have been long USDCAD             . (Check related ideas). As the move progressed up, the wave count kept showing further upside where several market participants started getting bearish .

At this point, the count is complete from 1.3038, and we should see a pull back. The larger structure is still bullish , so not expecting a capitulation here.

The 61.8% Fib confluences nicely at the moment with the bottom of the channel
a year ago
Trade active: Tightening stops to 1.3280
a year ago
Comment: Correction - Tightening stops to 1.3380
dojitrader
a year ago
With regard to your wave count . . .
I'm I correct in assuming you're labeling this an a-b-c
with c potential at or near the last high is part of a larger
degree wave B making the low of Oct 15th an A and
this larger degree being a B wave top of an flat or extended
flat with wave C correction to unfold before a final wave 5 ?
Hope I made this question understandable ?
Thanks for your thoughts ~~~~~~ wishing you pips in your pocket too !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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__SpecialFX__ PRO dojitrader
a year ago
Hi Dojitrader, Although I do see the 1.3456 highs as significant, for now I am labeling it as a completion from the first leg from 1.1918. Where we are now, according to my count, is exactly in the middle of wave (C) on the chart below. Because I have 1.3456 marked as a completed wave, this can easily turned into the bearish scenario that you describe with 1.2832 Oct 15 lows being wave A - but for now, my weekly counts show further upside targets. If you notice the price action on the daily chart in the current wave (from 1.3038 starting point) vs the previous wave (from 1.2832) it has not shown signs of bearishness in the larger structure on the Daily, the way the 4H &1H has been showing over the last few weeks on the smaller structures.
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dojitrader __SpecialFX__
a year ago
Thanks for showing a daily chart. That brings me to the heart of my question:
To my eye, I see an impulsive price action (going as far back as 2 or 3 years) that would be labeled
as this chart included where you see this as
a corrective price action as you've labeled.
So, my question: what is the reason you see corrective price action instead of impulsive
on both the larger degree and smaller degree ?
Thanks again for your thoughts !!!!!
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__SpecialFX__ PRO dojitrader
a year ago
The counts that I post are a higher level count. My counts originate from 5m/15m/1H. On the smaller TF's, the rules are broken in order to call it an impulsive move. As the waves are fractal in nature, it essentially forces me to count it corrective. As an example, on your chart where you have wave 3, when I look at the 5min chart during that period of time, I can't seem to label it impulsive without breaking rules. In the end, every Elliottician is going to have a different count, as long as it helps identify the pattern that's all that matters in my books! Hope that helps.
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dojitrader __SpecialFX__
a year ago
If I may be a bother ~~~~~
Just one more question ~~~~~ I understand that the
The shorter time frames have so much "noise", if you will.
On the larger degree, which of the 3 major rules in EW are being broken
that you refer too,
and when that happens what makes you rule out triangles for messy price action ?
Thanks and I'll leave you alone to trade now. !!
I'm just curious about such exact opposite labeling.
ps_ wish I could take credit for this labeling, but, most
of it is from someone smarter than I/me -_
which is why I bring this up since I just can't see anything but impulsive.
Again ----- PIPS in you POCKET !
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__SpecialFX__ PRO dojitrader
a year ago
The comment about shorter time frames being noise. If that's the standpoint someone takes in counting waves, then there is no issue, and likely no rules are being broken. Personally I don't believe that, I've counted waves on 5m/1m and even 10sec's. In fact at the momentum, i'm tracking the USDCAD on 5m in effort to get a good short position in (posted in comments). I think that *most* would disagree with my method, but I believe it's what gives me an edge.

Elliott Wave is the most subjective technical analysis tool out there. And the most difficult. I don't know which methods are right or wrong, just sharing what works for me.
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5 Minute wave count shows that as long as 1.3342 holds, the pair is likely going to do one more leg higher towards 1.3400/1.3420 to complete circle b, which should offer a decent short entry
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