CAD - Can wee see some weakness? (EURCAD and USDCAD)
This idea came to my mind because of two things.
First, as you can see via the link below, I have some early bearish feelings about WTI. As CAD is often considered as a "commodity ccy" with its performance somehow related to oil price, I started to think about the chances of some temporary CAD weakness.
Second, thing is that the recent USD correction has approximately reached all my original targets on most of the pairs I was looking at (USDHUF, GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDTRY) and of course on DXY as well.
So I thought I need to check what's cooking in the CAD charts, both ag EUR and USD.
EURCAD daily (left panel):
- Last time I warned about a reversal and called for profit taking on shorts was on 22/April (pls see link below). Since then Ichimoku picture has really changed from bearish to neutral: Price is in the cloud, trading at 100 WMA, Chikou Span crossed above past candles, Tenkan/Kijun is weak to medium bullish, Senkou A and B lines touch each other. A thick Kumo overshades the Price ahead.
Price will either try to attack 1,3750 supp/res, or will bounce back towards 1,3400, and will range trade in the Kumo.
From this setup it will be very difficult to push EURCAD back below 1,3400 and turn the picture to bearish again. If The Kumo and 1,3400 holds, there will be a chance that EURCAD develops an inverted H&S pattern later (after pattern validation the measured tgt would be ard 1,4200)
- Heikin Ashi setup is bullish, haDelta/SMA3 is above zero, but has some negative divergence.
USDCAD daily (right panel):
- Ichimoku setup is early bearish, but with the rule of a classic Kumo breakout strategy we'd need a close below recent lows of 1,1940-1,1980. This I think will be a bit difficult, given that 1,1985 is the 0,382 Fibo retracement level of the move from July/2014 low to March 2015 high.
- The other difficulty is seen in Heikin Ashi pattern: there is too much hesitation ard this 1,2000 +/- level. Recent candle is green, haDelta/SMA3 crosses up (still below zero), and it has some positive divergence
- I think in short term the probability to see a retest to Kijun Sen (also 0,236 Fibo) at ard 1,2300 is higher, than chance of a drop to 1,1725 (0,50 Fibo)
Summary: I really loved being long CAD vs both USD and EUR so far. I don't like it any more. I think CAD can become volatile, choppy and more under pressure in next few weeks. The question is which pair to go long? In fact it is an EURUSD question :-). Maybe both? Anyway, it's not wise to stay long CAD now, at least not at current levels.
First, as you can see via the link below, I have some early bearish feelings about WTI. As CAD is often considered as a "commodity ccy" with its performance somehow related to oil price, I started to think about the chances of some temporary CAD weakness.
Second, thing is that the recent USD correction has approximately reached all my original targets on most of the pairs I was looking at (USDHUF, GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDTRY) and of course on DXY as well.
So I thought I need to check what's cooking in the CAD charts, both ag EUR and USD.
EURCAD daily (left panel):
- Last time I warned about a reversal and called for profit taking on shorts was on 22/April (pls see link below). Since then Ichimoku picture has really changed from bearish to neutral: Price is in the cloud, trading at 100 WMA, Chikou Span crossed above past candles, Tenkan/Kijun is weak to medium bullish, Senkou A and B lines touch each other. A thick Kumo overshades the Price ahead.
Price will either try to attack 1,3750 supp/res, or will bounce back towards 1,3400, and will range trade in the Kumo.
From this setup it will be very difficult to push EURCAD back below 1,3400 and turn the picture to bearish again. If The Kumo and 1,3400 holds, there will be a chance that EURCAD develops an inverted H&S pattern later (after pattern validation the measured tgt would be ard 1,4200)
- Heikin Ashi setup is bullish, haDelta/SMA3 is above zero, but has some negative divergence.
USDCAD daily (right panel):
- Ichimoku setup is early bearish, but with the rule of a classic Kumo breakout strategy we'd need a close below recent lows of 1,1940-1,1980. This I think will be a bit difficult, given that 1,1985 is the 0,382 Fibo retracement level of the move from July/2014 low to March 2015 high.
- The other difficulty is seen in Heikin Ashi pattern: there is too much hesitation ard this 1,2000 +/- level. Recent candle is green, haDelta/SMA3 crosses up (still below zero), and it has some positive divergence
- I think in short term the probability to see a retest to Kijun Sen (also 0,236 Fibo) at ard 1,2300 is higher, than chance of a drop to 1,1725 (0,50 Fibo)
Summary: I really loved being long CAD vs both USD and EUR so far. I don't like it any more. I think CAD can become volatile, choppy and more under pressure in next few weeks. The question is which pair to go long? In fact it is an EURUSD question :-). Maybe both? Anyway, it's not wise to stay long CAD now, at least not at current levels.
