USDCAD Bearish 3 Drives Pattern

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
USDCAD             has been bullish and it might be time for a retracement. I think I see a 3 drives pattern completing in the 1.2480-ish area, so that's where I'll go short with a TP @ 1.2310-ish area. If you're trading multiple contracts 1.2205-ish might make a nice TP 2.
Good Morning Slindstr,
Looks like price action has come up short of anticipated targets to short.
(Which means I get to eat my words about over throw strength, Yum ~~~)
Looking to go short on a potential retest of the trend line break.
Hopefully the candlesticks will yield a trigger and stops that make sense.
Any place you'd look to go short/stops ?
+1 Reply
slindstr dojitrader
I like your idea for a bunch of reasons:

1) Looking at the weekly chart the next resistance point is in the 1.2730s (~300 pips north!) and the next support level is in the 1.1860s (~500 pips south!) and we're really overbought per RSI(7, close) at a whopping 94.87

2) The daily is also overbought @ 91.60


3) the 4 hour is no longer overbought and the RSI on the 60 is around 37.75, so we might see a bounce back up around previous hourly structure in the 1.2410s

I might wait for it to break through the 1.2410s and retest that before going short. If that happens I'd:

SHORT @ 1.2410
STOP @ 1.2445
TP @ 1.2330

There's a lot of high voloatiliy news for USD coming out tomorrow so I'll be sure to close out my position before then!
Good looking pattern !
When I measured it out myself I noticed there is also reasonable
confluence of the 1.272 fib ext of D1 and D2 to go along
with the inverse 1.618 ratio highlighted in your chart.
I'm not sure where to put the stops yet as the strength
of this last up leg will probably produce a strong over
throw of the top trend line.
Lots of pips to us both !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
slindstr dojitrader
Thanks for the analysis! It always makes me feel better when someone else independently comes up with the same thing, especially when its done another way!
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