I'm reading The Harmonic Trader by Scott Carney and I'm on the part about Fibonacci retracements. AUDUSD is bullish on the 60 minute chart and after a big sell off it stopped right on the 0.786retracement. Looking left there is also structure to support this, so my trade looks like this:
BUY @ 0.7448 (for me this was next bar market @ 9am PST)
STOP @ 0.7427
I was wrong about AUDUSD being a short opportunity in my last post. Since we've been seeing higher highs and higher lows we're in a bullish trend at the moment and we're also seeing resistance turn into support around the .7470s.
Hoping the trend continues my trade is going to look like:
BUY @ 0.7468
STOP @ 0.7433
SELL @ 0.7525
Risk: 35 pips
After a couple of up days it looks like AUDUSD has run into and respected structure (upward resistance) on the daily chart at .7445ish. After bouncing off of that, support around .7413ish was broken to the downside but the next level of structure at .7374ish seems to be holding.
Looking left to previous structure we'll run into structure turned resistance at...
We might have a bearish bat pattern on the Daily KO chart.
- AB is just over a .5 retracement of XA
- BC is just short of the .382 retracement of AB
- Looking left we do have structure at point D.
Stops go above X, TP 1 @ the .382 retracement of AD.
AB is ~ .382 retracement of XA
BC is ~ 1.272 extension of XA
D is right in the thick of some previous structure AND near a nice even number (1.2400)
So the trade would look something like:
SELL @ 1.1240
STOP @ 1.1270ish
TP1 @ 1.1200ish (.382 retracement of CD)
TP2 @ 1.1170ish (.682 retracement of CD)
Potential Reward: 40pips (TP1) + another...
AUDNZD recently broke through a fairly significant piece of structure in the 1.0570s (see red circles on the chart). Until then this pair was in a strong bearish trend for months. This could be a reversal into a bullish trend, or it might just be a tease. Either way, since we're seeing higher lows and higher highs it's prudent to go with the trend.
Now this pair...
EDIT: johneee3456 correctly pointed out that XB cannot exceed .500 for it to be a bat pattern; my mistake! Instead this could potentially be a butterfly, which would require:
XB to be a .786 (we're close with a .782)
AC to be a .886 (we're close with a .897)
XD to be a 1.27 or 1.618 (not pictured)
It's late and I don't feel like redoing the chart, but if you...
Bat patterns need:
.382 or .500 XB leg (we have a .382)
.382 or .886 AC leg (we're just shy of .886)
1.618 or 2.618 BD leg (we're just shy of 2.618)
.886 XD leg
This looks like a bat pattern to me. Since XA is a .382 retracement and we have a strong bearish trend, I think the .618 is a good TP1 and the 1.272 is a good TP2. Stops above X.
We might have a bat pattern forming on AUDJPY.
Remember that a bat pattern has:
XB is a .382 or a .500 (unfortunately in this case we're over a .500...)
AC is is a .382 or a .886 (we're just above at a .906 here...)
BD is a 1.618 or 2.618 (we'll be just under at the 1.426s)
XD is a .886
and If you zoom out of the chart and look left you'll see we have a little...
Looks like a bearish bat pattern is nearing completion on the 60 for EURAUD (though point C is neither a .382 or a .886...) This is nice because it's going with the bearish trend and although we're seeing some bearish movement, I'm hoping that's just so it can get enough steam to make it to the .886.
RSI(14, close) shows we're almost overbought using 80 as...
CADJPY recently broke through resistance @ the 96.80s, a level that was tested multiple times as recent as Friday.I'm hoping we see one more test before resuming to the upside.
BUY @ 96.80s
SELL @ 98.40s
STOPs below the next level of resistance @ 96.40s
On the daily it looks like there's a potential AB=CD BUY pattern that's almost complete. We've got some good structure in the 116.80s and RSI (14, close) is showing that we're on our way to being oversold too.
BUY @ 117.10s
SELL @ 118.48 (TP)
STOP below structure @ mid 116.80s
Counter trend traders could also wait until the .382 retracement to get short.
NZDUSD had a bat setup that was invalidated by point D exceeding point X, so now we might be seeing a Butterfly. Could be at the 1.272 or 1.618 extensions.
Per "Trade What You See" by Larry Pesavento, stops should go above the 1.618, and since entry at the 1.272 would be too much risk for me, I'll likely try to enter around the 1.618 to minimize that risk. In...
GBPAUD is in a bullish trend in an ascending channel and it looks like we have the potential for 2 different bat patterns or a butterfly.
If the bullish bat (in black behind the blue butterfly) completes, we're looking at entry around the 1.8930s. The next level of support below the impulse leg (XA) is right around 1.8700 so we might see the market test that...
EDIT: Looks like publishing changed a little on me. Better chart inserted inline.
After taking a month or so off to take care of other projects, I'm hoping to get back in the swing of things shorting AUDCAD since we're in a bearish trend in all of our charts:
On the hourly it looks like we saw some consolidation between...
My original idea () to trade this pair as a Gartley didn't work out, so we're on to Plan B, which is to trade it as a butterfly.
BUY @ 1.0316
SELL @ 1.0290 (SL)
SELL @ 1.0377 (TP) (1.0415 could be a TP2 and 1.0486 could be a TP3 if things get strong and you're daring)
Risk: 26 Pips
There's some really nice structure on the AUDNZD 60 minute chart and we've been making higher highs and higher lows. Breaking through our most recent piece of structure has formed a Bullish Gartley pattern that looks promising; the AB leg is slightly over a .382 retracement which is usually indicative of trend continuation.
If this pattern does play nice we'll...