USD/CAD Fundamental + Technical Macroeconomic Update | 3.14.23
Weaker dollar due to uncertainties about Federal Reserve policy and US banking sector
On Wednesday, the dollar index was trading around 103.5, which is near its lowest levels in a month. This happened because investors are unsure about the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. They are also worried about recent turmoil in the US banking sector and the latest US inflation report. Some investors speculate that the Fed might pause its tightening campaign to avoid further risks to the financial system. Additionally, the annual inflation rate in the US slowed further to 6% in February, the lowest since September 2021. Money markets are now pricing an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed next week, lower than the half-percentage point increase expected a week ago.
Canadian dollar under selling pressure due to the Bank of Canada's decision
Investors are reacting to the end of the tightening cycle from the Bank of Canada, and the Canadian dollar is under selling pressure against the dollar. The Bank of Canada held the target for its overnight rate unchanged at 4.5% in March, as expected, and stated that they should keep it at the current level should economic conditions develop broadly in line with expectations. This is in contrast with the hawkish Federal Reserve, which sparked demand for the dollar. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the central bank would likely need to raise rates more than expected in response to recent robust inflation and employment data.
Oil prices rebound as OPEC raises forecast for Chinese oil demand growth
Brent crude futures rose above $78 per barrel on Wednesday, rebounding from three-month lows as OPEC raised its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth in 2023. This is due to the country’s exit from the zero-Covid policy. However, the oil-producing group left its outlook for global demand unchanged, citing potential downside risks for global growth. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said OPEC+ will stick to production cuts agreed in October until the end of the year. The international oil benchmark remains down more than 5% this week due to the turmoil in the US banking sector and the prospect of another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week. Investors now look ahead to IEA’s monthly report and official data on US crude inventories on Wednesday.
Investors reassess outlook for monetary policy and growth, driving down yields on Canadian government bonds
The yield on Canada's 10-year government bond eased to below 3%, a level not seen in a month, and is tracking its US peer lower as investors reassess the outlook for monetary policy and growth. Lingering concerns about a Fed-induced recession and the health of the US banking sector sparked demand for safe-haven assets, mainly government debt. Domestically, the Bank of Canada paused its rate-hike cycle at 4.5%, as previously signaled, after 425bps in rate increases during the last eight sessions. Policymakers noted that GDP growth was below expectations in the fourth quarter of 2022, emphasizing the need to support growth.
On Wednesday, the dollar index was trading around 103.5, which is near its lowest levels in a month. This happened because investors are unsure about the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. They are also worried about recent turmoil in the US banking sector and the latest US inflation report. Some investors speculate that the Fed might pause its tightening campaign to avoid further risks to the financial system. Additionally, the annual inflation rate in the US slowed further to 6% in February, the lowest since September 2021. Money markets are now pricing an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed next week, lower than the half-percentage point increase expected a week ago.
Canadian dollar under selling pressure due to the Bank of Canada's decision
Investors are reacting to the end of the tightening cycle from the Bank of Canada, and the Canadian dollar is under selling pressure against the dollar. The Bank of Canada held the target for its overnight rate unchanged at 4.5% in March, as expected, and stated that they should keep it at the current level should economic conditions develop broadly in line with expectations. This is in contrast with the hawkish Federal Reserve, which sparked demand for the dollar. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the central bank would likely need to raise rates more than expected in response to recent robust inflation and employment data.
Oil prices rebound as OPEC raises forecast for Chinese oil demand growth
Brent crude futures rose above $78 per barrel on Wednesday, rebounding from three-month lows as OPEC raised its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth in 2023. This is due to the country’s exit from the zero-Covid policy. However, the oil-producing group left its outlook for global demand unchanged, citing potential downside risks for global growth. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said OPEC+ will stick to production cuts agreed in October until the end of the year. The international oil benchmark remains down more than 5% this week due to the turmoil in the US banking sector and the prospect of another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week. Investors now look ahead to IEA’s monthly report and official data on US crude inventories on Wednesday.
Investors reassess outlook for monetary policy and growth, driving down yields on Canadian government bonds
The yield on Canada's 10-year government bond eased to below 3%, a level not seen in a month, and is tracking its US peer lower as investors reassess the outlook for monetary policy and growth. Lingering concerns about a Fed-induced recession and the health of the US banking sector sparked demand for safe-haven assets, mainly government debt. Domestically, the Bank of Canada paused its rate-hike cycle at 4.5%, as previously signaled, after 425bps in rate increases during the last eight sessions. Policymakers noted that GDP growth was below expectations in the fourth quarter of 2022, emphasizing the need to support growth.
