The USDCHF pair has seen some roller coaster movements so far this year. When the Covid 19 virus broke out in the USA, a lot of craziness was going on, both in and out of the market. You may notice that in early March of this year the price firmly punched through the long term trend line that had held since 2014. Price returned above the trend line within a week and went on to retest the trend line several more times before shattering the trend by the end of the month. You may notice that the price continued to drop until it hit the weekly key level at 9041. Since that time it has retested that key level 7 times over the last few months, but still it holds. The pair has been in a 130 pip consolidation, and is still there. Now I have to give the Bulls their due, as during the final week of Sept of this year, they did try to make a move, but the bears stepped in and said "Not on my watch." and back to bouncing off of the weekly key level. With the uncertainty of the USA Presidential election results and the recent surge in Covid 19 cases in the USA, the USD is in a bit of a quagmire. Where is this pair headed? I'm not sure, but I am sure that it is going to get it's act together and go somewhere, and that is where the waiting game comes in. You see the weekly key level is also less than 50 pips above the psychological resistance point of 9000.
My Bearish stance says that if the daily closes below the bottom green for Go-For-It line I'm selling down to .8808. If the price pulls back above the weekly key level, then I'm not too keen on staying in the trade, so I will set my stop loss at .9050. That will give me almost a 3:1 risk to reward ratio. I live that.
My bullish stance says that since the Bulls already made a failed attempt to retake control, that I will wait a bit longer to pull the trigger. But if the daily closes above the top green Go-For-It line at .9307 then I am buying up to .9440. If the price drops below 9240, then I'm not too keen on remaining in the trade, so that is where I will place my stop loss. That gives be about 2:1 risk reward from the line.
I wish that I could tell you what the market will do with absolute certainty, but the only way to know for sure, is to let the market tell us what it wants to do. Just be sure to listen to what it says, and be prepared with a plan of action to cover all contingencies. I have done my best to present what I perceive as the current situation with this pair.
As always I remind everyone that I am not an investment broker, advisor or even a guru, but merely a still wet behind the ears noob trader. The views expressed herein are strictly my own opinion of the current market situation of this pair. Every trader in the world should do their own due diligence on every trade that they make, or consider taking. Any action or inaction as the result of reading this is entirely your own responsibility, as is any resulting profits or losses. Happy Trading my friends.