TRADE: USDCHF SELL@1.02964 Wave (3) Done. Falling in Wave (4)

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
Taking this trade as if appears to be ready to take a fall in relief of a strong move up.

This pair has been on a long and sustained uptrend in what should've been a wave (3). This wave (3) appears to be over now and a wave (4) should commence. This wave (4) should be relatively shallow as the wave (2) was deep. Though in GENERAL this is the case, it isn't always. On this 4HR chart, I have counted and marked out the wave (3) advance and its' internal waves.

There is a COMPLETED Crab pattern that seems to have marked out the end of the wave (3). What I also have on the chart is a classic Potential Shark pattern with a POTENTIAL 5-0 pattern in the waiting as well. When patterns coincide with structure, it makes them that much more relevant. From my chart, you can see that the placement of the points of the Shark and the 5-0 makes sense in that they coincide with structure. The Shark would complete near a MAJOR Structure and the 5-0 also completes near a MAJOR Structure.

There is a POTENTIAL Butterfly pattern as well but that is still some ways away from completing and I have reason to believe that its completion will mark a MAJOR turning point in this pair. But I'll deal with that when the time comes.


I actually took this trade last Friday and am waiting for it to start to fall. That time could be today. Obviously, my stops go above the point where my wave count on this will be wrong. If this is a wave (4) retracement down, then it should stay below the ending of wave (3). At least for its' wave (A) down. When wave (A) of (4) is done, the wave (B) of (4) COULD pop above the wave (3) high but again, that is to be dealt with if and when it happens. Nothing to worry about now. If that Shark is to be filled, then that will be a TP. But fair warning, there are MAJOR obstacles below. All of which could stop the wave (4) and send it back up. Remember, wave 4's are NOTORIOUSLY unpredictable!

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Im on USDCHF short now too but do you think if SNB QE's at the following week that ECB QE's (assuming that they even do that) may weaken the CHF?
Or the this week may weaken the euro enough to strengthen the CHF for it to hit the target of parity to USD
Whew! That's a lot of fundamentals to deal with! EXACTLY the reason why I don't. I don't want to say that fundamentals don't matter at all. They do have impact on the trader's mind who follow the news. Remember, it is NOT the fundamentals that move the market. It is the trader's (individual and institutional) reaction to the news that moves the market. And the market is moved by FEAR and GREED. Greed in that those who want to make money off the news will buy/sell accordingly. Fear in that those that feel they're positions they have are being threatened by the news will close their positions. So it may seem I'm dodging your questions but really I'm just trying to put them in perspective. Do I know how EZ QE will affect the swissy? Or if the euro will gain parity to the dollar? And how that will affect the swissy? Honestly, I don't. And anyone who tells you they do know are full of it. But what I do know is that the chart is telling me to SELL.
+1 Reply
teddyrucks PRO EverythingForex
Charts are telling me to sell too so im going to hold the trade until it consolidates to where its "supposed" to move to.
Everytime a currency moves significantly there's articles out there that the SNB to QE after ECB does it to instigate fear and greed as you mentioned. Historically when the Fed have increased rates the USDOLLAR has dropped the following 90 days. This will be an interesting next 100 days.
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