This pair has been on a long and sustained uptrend in what should've been a wave (3). This wave (3) appears to be over now and a wave (4) should commence. This wave (4) should be relatively shallow as the wave (2) was deep. Though in GENERAL this is the case, it isn't always. On this 4HR chart, I have counted and marked out the wave (3) advance and its' internal waves.
There is a COMPLETED that seems to have marked out the end of the wave (3). What I also have on the chart is a classic Potential pattern with a POTENTIAL pattern in the waiting as well. When patterns coincide with structure, it makes them that much more relevant. From my chart, you can see that the placement of the points of the and the makes sense in that they coincide with structure. The would complete near a MAJOR Structure and the also completes near a MAJOR Structure.
There is a POTENTIAL as well but that is still some ways away from completing and I have reason to believe that its completion will mark a MAJOR turning point in this pair. But I'll deal with that when the time comes.
MY TRADING PLAN
I actually took this trade last Friday and am waiting for it to start to fall. That time could be today. Obviously, my stops go above the point where my wave count on this will be wrong. If this is a wave (4) retracement down, then it should stay below the ending of wave (3). At least for its' wave (A) down. When wave (A) of (4) is done, the wave (B) of (4) COULD pop above the wave (3) high but again, that is to be dealt with if and when it happens. Nothing to worry about now. If that is to be filled, then that will be a TP. But fair warning, there are MAJOR obstacles below. All of which could stop the wave (4) and send it back up. Remember, wave 4's are NOTORIOUSLY unpredictable!
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Everytime a currency moves significantly there's articles out there that the SNB to QE after ECB does it to instigate fear and greed as you mentioned. Historically when the Fed have increased rates the USDOLLAR has dropped the following 90 days. This will be an interesting next 100 days.