Sell Signals Looming? This Pair Nears Crucial SELL Zone

This pair has been on a strong upward trend since the beginning of the year, following a significant drop at the end of December. At that time, I shared my first trading idea for 2024 on TradingView.


You can find that idea linked in a related post at the bottom of this discussion. That trading strategy was spot on, hitting our target of 0.88, although I had mentioned the possibility of climbing even higher, beyond 0.90, due to certain key levels.


And that's precisely what happened. The price is now nearing the SELL/SUPPLY zone at 0.91. This level was established in September 2023 and initiated the decline to 0.83. So, what comes next? Is it time to sell?


If we examine the weekly chart below, you'll see a SELL/SUPPLY level right beneath the monthly one, which I believe was the real trigger for the descent to the new lows. The initial drop (indicated by a red arrow) did not set a new low, with the market pausing before plummeting sharply for eight consecutive weeks.





This is the zone where selling should be considered, especially as the market has been rising for nearly 13 straight weeks and appears to be extremely overbought as we enter the Weekly SELL/SUPPLY zone between 0.90 & 0.91.


The Daily chart shows that momentum hasn't diminished significantly and remains strong. This suggests that we might see a minor pullback towards 0.88 before another surge to the swing high @0.92, followed by another sell-off (refer to the chart below).




I'll now begin searching for SELL signals on the 4hr timeframe with the TRFX indicator, aiming for a short-term sell position towards 0.88 or possibly lower, around 0.86.


Price may continue its ascent towards 0.92 without the short-term pullback, given the strength in the daily trend, and then proceed to sell-off. Hence, I will also be preparing for this scenario and look to add to my position if the price moves up.


In the longer term, this pair is still bearish on the Monthly charts, and a bullish trend would only be confirmed by a clean break and close above 0.92, which could then open the path for moves all the way back to 1.04.


For now, I anticipate a sell-off from these levels given the overstretched 13-week bullish run and entry into a key Monthly SELL/SUPPLY zone that precipitated last year's lows.


Let me know your thoughts below.