Option straddle to serve best for USD/INR risks ahead of budget

FX_IDC:USDINR   U.S. Dollar / Indian Rupee
146 1 4
It's a big day for INR             today, after consistent loses against dollar, Monday morning has nothing positive to offer given the subdued global sentiment. Yes, all eyes will be on the Union Budget which Finance Minister Arun Jaitley would present around 11 am.

The key focus would be on Corporate tax reduction, increasing service tax rate, some steps towards GST             implementation, capital support for PSU             banks and divestment of government stakes in PSUs along with some reforms are among the broad expectations.

As a result, we've already seen FIIs sell in equities to the tune of Rs             . 695 crores. While in Index Futures , they bought of worth Rs             . 734 crores with marginal change in open interest, indicating blend to both long formation and short covering in last trading session.

Technically, although USDINR             showing some upside potential, it has been losing upswings momentum from last couple of trading days as the rejection of resistance at 68.7539 levels.

Even though the bears began pushing downwards we saw sharp bounces every now and then, thereby we could see bull candles with big real body quite often.

Leading oscillators are also moving in linear direction to signify indecision but slightly narrowed curve indicates reduced momentum in previous intraday selling pressures and so is the MACD .

On a significant economic event today, we now keep an eye on potential breach above mentioned resistance at 68.7539 levels and INR             gains on the contrary, options straddle is the best suitable in such range bounded circumstances in put with 50% delta. Long options straddle that fetched unlimited returns during higher implied volatility scenarios short term.

So, go simultaneously long in at the money call and, and limited risk to the extent of initial premiums paid options.

Well, this option trading strategy that are usually used during significant economic news, in this case when the options trader ponders that the USDINR             will experience significant volatility ahead budget event, in the near term it would be highly volatile pair to trade with but expects the swings in either way.
Good analysis, Thanks.
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