USDJPY: A Medium-Term Technical Outlook(Update)

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
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April             5 Update: In my latest short term technical view at , I suggested that the price is breaking out above key resistance levels, hinting further upside in the near term, I suggested that price may retrace lower first before heading higher again. The price indeed retraced, but was that a retracement or a reversal?
To have a better picture, I revisited the weekly chart, which failed to confirm my bullish bias, as price reversed of 103.75 Resistance level , failing to CLOSE the week above that key medium term resistance, and formed a minor pin bar .

Failure to print a weekly closing above that resistance threatens for another leg lower within the context of the sideways range among 100.60-103.75 key support and Resistance levels. i am looking for a retest of 102.55 support level , a break below may signal a move towards the bottom of the range just at 100.60-101.00 area.

I believe that best way to trade this market through looking to short term trading setups and don't be attached to one direction, look for setups over the four-hour time horizon, trying to sell rallies and buy dips as the sideways bias continues to be dominant.


March 7 Update( The price has managed to break 102.70 minor resistance, forming a Bullish Engulfing candle, Are we heading to retest the 61.8 retracement level again? So far the technical odds remain in favor of the uptrend resumption scenario.


Feb 17( ): The price has started a corrective wave after testing a long term 61.8 retracement level at 105.60, where price currently lands at a key support at 100.60-101.20 area. The first test of the support area resulted in a bullish weekly hammer candle, which hints possible renewed bullish attempts this week. A break above 102.70 short-term resistance will probably confirm the bullish rebound scenario.

Alternatively, if price manages to break 100.60 that would signal more downside, for a retest of the 52-week average at 99.50 and on the longer run 96.55 support.

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