Technician

USDJPY: A Medium-Term Technical Outlook(Update)

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
704 0 6
April 5 Update: In my latest short term technical view at
USDJPY: Breakout!
, I suggested that the price is breaking out above key resistance levels, hinting further upside in the near term, I suggested that price may retrace lower first before heading higher again. The price indeed retraced, but was that a retracement or a reversal?
To have a better picture, I revisited the weekly chart, which failed to confirm my bullish bias, as price reversed of 103.75 Resistance level, failing to CLOSE the week above that key medium term resistance, and formed a minor pin bar.

Failure to print a weekly closing above that resistance threatens for another leg lower within the context of the sideways range among 100.60-103.75 key support and Resistance levels. i am looking for a retest of 102.55 support level, a break below may signal a move towards the bottom of the range just at 100.60-101.00 area.

I believe that best way to trade this market through looking to short term trading setups and don't be attached to one direction, look for setups over the four-hour time horizon, trying to sell rallies and buy dips as the sideways bias continues to be dominant.

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March 7 Update( https://www.tradingview.com/v/ygimPT6w/): The price has managed to break 102.70 minor resistance, forming a Bullish Engulfing candle, Are we heading to retest the 61.8 retracement level again? So far the technical odds remain in favor of the uptrend resumption scenario.

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Feb 17(
USDJPY: A Medium-term Technical Look
): The price has started a corrective wave after testing a long term 61.8 retracement level at 105.60, where price currently lands at a key support at 100.60-101.20 area. The first test of the support area resulted in a bullish weekly hammer candle, which hints possible renewed bullish attempts this week. A break above 102.70 short-term resistance will probably confirm the bullish rebound scenario.

Alternatively, if price manages to break 100.60 that would signal more downside, for a retest of the 52-week average at 99.50 and on the longer run 96.55 support.

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