USDJPY: A Medium-Term Technical Outlook (Update)

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
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April 13 Update: In my latest updates provided in the related links below, I was looking for a potential move lower, Indeed, price headed sharply lower faster than i anticipated, to retest the main and major support at this area. Note that despite the sharp selloff we are still in the sideways range illustrated on chart, and therefore, the bias remains neutral for now, and the best strategy to follow is to look for signs of a bullish rebound, wait for plenty of confirmation over the lower time intervals, targeting the mid of the range then the ceiling at 103.75. Otherwise, do not long this strong bearish market, as a break below the support and floor of the sideways range at 100.75 will surely provide a shorting opportunity, with plenty of downside potential.

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I'm new here. Congrats, great analysis, I agree. In addition to what already descibed, IMHO: on daily the SMA200 is approaching the supp zone. Also a lateral channel can be identified with the last 2 candles that close not definitely below the lower line, probabibly due to very strong supp zone in the neighborhood. On weekly, confirming the fact that support zone is quite strong, please take into account that in addition to the bull engulfing, on the left, there are another bull eng (pinbar) followed by a piercing patter (both of them provide supp). The low boll band is also converging. And least it is about the 50% fib if you draw it considering the weak supp formed by the long lower tails since Aug,18/2013 (followed by 2 bull eng). Thanks
Thanks for this useful addition :)
usera9 Technician
You are welcome.
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