USD JPY - Today is an important day for the USD!
Today, United States is going to publish the 1Q GDP – currently the forecast is the same as the previous fact at 3.1%. If the forecast is above expectations that will be good for the currency and a lower than expected reading can be bearish for the USD.
At the same time Initial jobless claims will be announced, currently the forecast is showing an increase of initial jobless claims of 4K, yet last weeks report was better than expected.
A little later in the day, the US will also publish Pending Home Sales.
All this with less than 24 hours to go til the G20 Summit and the long-awaited meeting between President Donald Trump and Leader Xi Jinping on Saturday.
Reports of U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stating that a deal was 90% done and ready to be signed may have been misinterpreted, because what he actually said is they “were about 90% of the way” there. We think that the negotiation talks are starting to move in the right direction, but at the same time President Trump is extremely hard to predict. Yesterday he stated that he’s optimistic about trade talks but he’s “very happy with where we are now” and is still considering more tariffs.
We will simply have to wait and see – tomorrow looks very intriguing and will be most interesting for many assets on the financial markets.
USD JPY - Technical analysis:
D TF shows us a bearish trend that is trying to reverse to the upside. On the 25th we can observe a bullish pin bar rejecting lower prices. 26th the bulls are trying the break the 9EMA up and today the price opened above the 9EMA at 107.786.
4H TF – price is travelling above the 9 EMA and the Parabolic SAR indicator.
We can also observe a double bottom pattern, that acts as an additional possible confirmation of a reversal to the upside.
The price is currently attempting to break the 23.6 Fibo correction up, which is located in the same target area as our local trend line.
A break above this level will give us further target areas at 108.826 (38.2 Fibo) followed by 109.479 (50% Fibo).
All things considered, the current atmosphere for the USD is slightly bullish but things are very highly dependent on the G20 Summit. Unless there is evident progress before the end of the trading day tomorrow, we may see a wave of profit taking on USD/JPY.
At the same time Initial jobless claims will be announced, currently the forecast is showing an increase of initial jobless claims of 4K, yet last weeks report was better than expected.
A little later in the day, the US will also publish Pending Home Sales.
All this with less than 24 hours to go til the G20 Summit and the long-awaited meeting between President Donald Trump and Leader Xi Jinping on Saturday.
Reports of U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stating that a deal was 90% done and ready to be signed may have been misinterpreted, because what he actually said is they “were about 90% of the way” there. We think that the negotiation talks are starting to move in the right direction, but at the same time President Trump is extremely hard to predict. Yesterday he stated that he’s optimistic about trade talks but he’s “very happy with where we are now” and is still considering more tariffs.
We will simply have to wait and see – tomorrow looks very intriguing and will be most interesting for many assets on the financial markets.
USD JPY - Technical analysis:
D TF shows us a bearish trend that is trying to reverse to the upside. On the 25th we can observe a bullish pin bar rejecting lower prices. 26th the bulls are trying the break the 9EMA up and today the price opened above the 9EMA at 107.786.
4H TF – price is travelling above the 9 EMA and the Parabolic SAR indicator.
We can also observe a double bottom pattern, that acts as an additional possible confirmation of a reversal to the upside.
The price is currently attempting to break the 23.6 Fibo correction up, which is located in the same target area as our local trend line.
A break above this level will give us further target areas at 108.826 (38.2 Fibo) followed by 109.479 (50% Fibo).
All things considered, the current atmosphere for the USD is slightly bullish but things are very highly dependent on the G20 Summit. Unless there is evident progress before the end of the trading day tomorrow, we may see a wave of profit taking on USD/JPY.