USDJPY - Increasing chance for a double top?
I have a few patterns only which I try to catch sometimes. These are: wedges, H&S or inverse H&S, and double (triple) tops and bottoms.
In this case with double top we have only one problem. Before it gets validated it has to fall a lot: obviously we'll know if it becomes a double top only when and if it trades below 122,30. Until we see more bearish confirmation this is just a theory and one possibility, so let's check other details in depth.
Daily:
- Bullish Ichimoku setup above Kumo, but this time we do not have such a strong momentum. Supports are ard: 123+, and most importantly 122,30.
- A bearish Ichimoku reversal would also validate the double top pattern (requires a break below 122,30)
- Heikin Ashi signals hesitation and a possible pull back (bearish swing) ahead. haDelta/SMA3 struggles to stay above zero line, actually crossed down below zero. HA oscillator also turns bearish. Anyway from only daily candle it is hard to tell wether we really see a bearish swing or if it will go up again to test 125+ once more.
If someone is long, should trail stop loss to the PSAR level ard 123,90.
4H:
- Neutral Ichimoku setup, Price trades in the Kumo cloud, exactly at short term equilibrium: future Senkou B, 100 WMA and Kijun Sen.
- Heikin Ashi looks to turn possibly bearish again at important supp/res levels, but we need to wait for this candle close and haDelta/SMA3 to confirm.
- More bearish momentum gain would happen below 123,95. For conservative traders that is the ultimate level to watch for a short entry.
Please note also that the volatility of this pair has become extremely low. So make sure you adjust your position sizing and stops according to ATR.
In this case with double top we have only one problem. Before it gets validated it has to fall a lot: obviously we'll know if it becomes a double top only when and if it trades below 122,30. Until we see more bearish confirmation this is just a theory and one possibility, so let's check other details in depth.
Daily:
- Bullish Ichimoku setup above Kumo, but this time we do not have such a strong momentum. Supports are ard: 123+, and most importantly 122,30.
- A bearish Ichimoku reversal would also validate the double top pattern (requires a break below 122,30)
- Heikin Ashi signals hesitation and a possible pull back (bearish swing) ahead. haDelta/SMA3 struggles to stay above zero line, actually crossed down below zero. HA oscillator also turns bearish. Anyway from only daily candle it is hard to tell wether we really see a bearish swing or if it will go up again to test 125+ once more.
If someone is long, should trail stop loss to the PSAR level ard 123,90.
4H:
- Neutral Ichimoku setup, Price trades in the Kumo cloud, exactly at short term equilibrium: future Senkou B, 100 WMA and Kijun Sen.
- Heikin Ashi looks to turn possibly bearish again at important supp/res levels, but we need to wait for this candle close and haDelta/SMA3 to confirm.
- More bearish momentum gain would happen below 123,95. For conservative traders that is the ultimate level to watch for a short entry.
Please note also that the volatility of this pair has become extremely low. So make sure you adjust your position sizing and stops according to ATR.
