Kumowizard
Short

Heikin Ashi sell signal

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
318 9 8
- Trend is bearish , with increasing momentum. Spot price back below Tenkan Sen.
- Heikin Ashi had early signal yesterday for a possible downturn, and a firm sell signal today.
- I enterred short again. Initial tgt             at 117. Initial stop at 122+, trail it with price movement.



Looking good.
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Kumowizard PRO claydoctor
"Simple is beautyful!"
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claydoctor Kumowizard
I think I saw a black swan out swimming today in the lake. :)
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Kumowizard PRO claydoctor
I don't believe in black swans in the original meaning. I think only 9/11 was a black swan. Lehman, dotcom, russian, asian crises were all pretty much predictable to happen sooner or later. Of course the exact timing or the exact trigger of these events are sometimes kind of black swans... I really don't understand sometimes why things take so long to unfold :-). But maybe it is just because of human greed, or human nature of not accepting changes, etc.
Anyway, this theory, and the whole idea points to one thing: we must not trade our beliefs or something we think should (or have to) happen! We only have to trade what is happening, so trade the current price action and the trends, with being flexible enough to admit when something is over. So actually you can trade "black, grey or white swans". You must be prepared for them all the time, then they can not cause you any trouble.
Recently I've been reading posts from a smart analyst guy on Twitter. The other day he said stg ike this: "you must always manage your risk PRE, not post!"
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Kumowizard
Wise words indeed. I like the multi colored swans haha.
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claydoctor IvanLabrie
Human nature defaults to the status quo, status quo remains, until something extra ordinary, outside of human nature, makes it change. Like an object which is in motion stays in motion, until another force changes it. Predicting the force that changes, and the degree of force, is the thing we want to know but cannot know unless we truly have the ability to predict the future. Managing risk is key, and being able to do it "Pre" is the difference between success and failure, profit or loss.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO claydoctor
Amen. :)
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Kumowizard PRO claydoctor
that's why I always say: Don't be predictive, be reactive and adaptive!

This is my philosophy in trendfollowing technical analysis. It is impossible and therefor useless to predict the future. So comparing past patterns, price actions or statistics with present, or trying to apply them now to predict the future is not working.
Following the price action and the possible trend waves however is working as it has always worked in the past.

Lincoln said: "the best way to predict the future is to create it!"
Future is constantly being created. If you participate in it, then you don't have to predict it!
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Kumowizard PRO Kumowizard
I think I will post it on Twitter too :-)
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