The United States labor market is in a tight spot. Looking at the latest release of Nonfarm payrolls for May, which came out at 75K, compared to the forecasted 185K and the previous fact 224K.
This means that there is no other possible way for the US monetary authorities to act, other than to decrease the interest rate. Analysts are noticing that the market is expecting that the Fed will decrease the rate by at least 75 b.p. (basis points). Consequently, the price of the US dollar already takes this decision into consideration. In this case the pressure on the American national currency, which we mentioned in our review on the 4-th of June, may start fading away step by step.
On the other hand, discussing USD/JPY we always have to take into consideration the US-China relationship. Trade war risks may easily spread panic among traders, leading to selling of the yen.
In our previous USD/JPY review we discussed the possibility that the pair could reach the level 108,640. It happened on 10-th June. But we are still optimistic about the currency. Let’s look at technical features again.
On daily time frame USD/JPY is trying to break 9-EMA.
A classical divergence on is confirming the reversal pattern.
lines are really close, giving the hint for the reversal. returned from the oversold zone too.
If the pair succeeds in breaking the 23.6% Fibo correction level – the next target will become the (109). After that the movement up may continue till the level 109.566.
Summary: it is possible to open longs if the pair breaks 108.897.