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USDJPY: Pre-NFP Analysis - How I'm Looking At NFP Move

FX_IDC:USDJPY   US DOLLAR / YEN
Before I begin, let me first say that playing the NFP is very high-risk and if you do, I STRONGLY SUGGEST to reduce position size to at least half or less. Having said that, any analysis pre-NFP is shaky at best because the NFP price action can easily invalidate it all So take this for what it's worth....

Basically, according to my analysis, I am expecting a positive NFP. What you see here on the main chart of this post is my wave count for the current PA. It suggests that the next move must be up. Probably in a wave (5) of wave iii             .I've also labeled the MAX length of wave (5) @125.581. Why? Because beyond that point, wave (5) will be longer than wave (3) and that would invalidate my wave count. And to the downside, 124.472 is the validation point for this wave count as prices cannot cross below there or the count will be invalid. So in this case, it's very clear what should happen IF my count is correct. Therefore, the trade becomes very clear.

HOW DID I GET TO THIS CONCLUSION?

The following charts will show the rest of my wave counts as to how I drilled down to this point.

4Hr CHART
This 4Hr chart shows my wave count on the recent price actions. Notice also that there is a POTENTIAL bearish shark pattern that is developing that also suggests prices will move up more and that this uptrend is not finished. Prices have already crossed the B point line of the shark pattern which also suggests that the pattern should finish.
snapshot

2Hr CHART - Zooming In On The Current Wave Action
snapshot

CONCLUSION AND MY TRADE PLAN
One word.... BULLISH . I am expecting a positive NFP which should send prices up to complete wave (5) of wave iii             . I am actually already LONG from 124.272 and have been holding that trade for a while now. But for the sake of the current sit-rep, a trade from the break of the wave (4) trend line (on chart) will be a good place to place a BUY order. If things go as planned, then that trade should yield a good, quick +70 pips. Now, i know that a 70 pip move on a NFP is rather small. But I can only go by what my wave count is telling me. Again, if I'm wrong. my stop is at 124.272 and that is not a big risk comparatively speaking. If I am wrong about the wave (5) max level and prices go right through it, well......I'll be HAPPY to be wrong!

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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