long1996

UJ: Weekly Outlook - Recap, Technical, Fundamental

Short
FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Verdict: Technically Bearish. Pay attention to news released.
Technical: Bearish
Fundamental: Neutral

Recap: On the previous Friday, the price retested the 109 level and hang on to it before the market closed. On Monday, the price pull off from the 109 level and continued its ascent towards the upper resistance at 110 level throughout the next 2 days. On Wednesday, the price has hit the 110 levels but failed to push above it. Consequently, a doji with a small bearish body is formed. On Thursday, the price printed a strong bearish candlestick as price plummet to the nearest support at 109 after being held back by the resistance at 110. The price has briefly touched the 109 level but it failed to close below it. On Friday, the price continued its descent and break below the 109 level to around 108.650 before it push back above 109 level.
Technical: The last candlestick has printed a bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow, indicating that the price has been rejected off the 109 level. However, an Evening Star (Pic above) has been formed prior to this candle, signifying the potential shift in momentum. The third candlestick has printed a strong bearish candlestick as it close below the low of the first candlestick. This has indicates that the previous bullish momentum has been wipes out and the bears might be in control now. A break below 109 would possibly push the price below to 108 & 107. On the upside, a clear break above 110 would potentially push the price to 111.2 & 112.2.

Fundamental: The softer data on NFP has dampen the mood for the 4 Fed rates hikes in 2018. With softer US data being released, the USD has been showing signs of consolidation as it starts to retrace. The lack of strong positive news has caused the pair to stall below the 110 resistance level. More stimulus is required for a push above. Else the price could potentially retrace downwards as it prepared for the rates hike on June 13.
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