The lead to measure risk in the foreign exchange market

You probably know that there are several major central banks in the world (8 in total, which are moving the global financial markets). Among these eight major banks, there are a few, precisely 3, which alone represent 70%, of all world trade in the Foreign exchange market. This is, of course, the BOJ (Bank of Japan), the ECB (European Central Bank), and the FED (US Federal Reserve). So, analyzing the pair USD/JPY, requires special attention. These are two monetary policies that are often very diametrically opposed. The BoJ, which has suffered from almost two decades of deflation, has always opted for unconventional monetary policies in order to withstand the pangs of this economic scourge. On one often, on the side of the BoJ, NIRP (policy of negative interest rate) or ZIRP (policy of zero interest rate). These are in fact policies that consist of injecting in an ultra-massive way, a certain amount of currency, so as to keep the rates very very low, or negative. On the side of the FED, since 2014, we have officially entered a policy of monetary tightening, totalling 8 interest rate climbs from 2014 to the present; Which is therefore, an average of 2 rates per year in four years. These days, which refer, to empirical and historical observations, due to a context of geopolitical tension, aggressive monetary policy, and bearish market Spectrum that hover, the yen thus becomes, automatically highly sought. As for the dollar, it remains neutral now, and is on the lookout for new catalysts to steer it a clear direction. This is why a bearish configuration is observed on the USD/JPY pair; Which is illustrated on the graph from 2008 to today.

[b]TECHNICAL FACTOR: Markets are cyclical, they evolve into channels (bullish or bearish). So if they are not broken, the chart will evolve in their respective corridors. Analyzing a long - term graph, well confirms This economic theory that ' ' in a real cyclical economy, the macroeconomic impacts on the financial markets remain ineffective and unchanged ' '. This means that in every candle of a very long term, the impact is already absorbed and the chart will therefore continue their paths if and only if, the current orientations remain. Double failure between 112,50 - 113,50 which confirms the presence of a potential double Top (DT) with a neck line of 110.20 which if broken, will confirm it. Otherwise, the courses will evolve in the narrow channel observed for over semester.

FUNDAMENTAL FACTOR: Increase in VIX beyond 20 points + increase in bond yields beyond 3.50% + trade Tensions + geopolitical tensions + maintaining the current monetary policy of BoJ = decrease in USDJPY