luganschi
Short

EWA. USDJPY - Triangle in Wave [4]

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Okay, lads. From the middle of February we can see a consolidation model forming on USDJPY             chart. Perhaps, it's a triangle - that fits just perfect as the wave 4 in current bearish impulse. Even so, the time to sell hasn't come yet, and that's why:
  • The current price pattern looks like a triangle, but until we can read all 5 waves it's not a triangle
  • Even afterwards, I strongly don't recomend to sell, until the price will form a return from the upper trend line
My trading plan:
I'll wait until wave (e) will be formed - it can take a pretty long time, but as Jess Livermore said "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!". After the price will approach to the upper trend line , I will open a short position. 115 yens for 1 bucks look like a pretty strong ressistance level, that's why I will put my stop-loss order there. The target zone is, at least, the height of the triangle - something around 110,2 yens per bucks. Risk/reward ratio, as you can see, it's ok.
Alternative scenario:
  • Wave {4} could take, basically, any other form. If my S/L order will be executed, I'll stay outside the market, because
  • There is also a possibility that current bearish trend is finished yet, and will form a pretty large correction
  • There is also a possibility that there will be no triangle, but just a ABC-flat - but it's not my bussiness, as long as it's too risky to open a trade right now.
Of course, if my target zone will be reached, or I'll have to cut my loses, I'll stay outside the market pretty long.
Trade active: Time has come. I open a short trade with the S/L at the maximum of wave (C) in current triangle. Target zone stays the same - 100 yens per dollar.
Comment: Yesterday was formed a little wave (1) in the upcoming wave . Today is correction time. My trade is still active, waiting for little wave (3)
Comment: So, the trade worked as magic.
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