- USDJPY failed to find buyers around 103
- Closed below the 102.85 (62%) retracement level on Friday on heavy selling (large macro fund driven)
- A test of 99.98 now looks likely and momentum favours a break to the downside
- If this level holds then a 'right shoulder' could form around 102.50 - 103.00
- Whether this forms or not a close below 99.98 ushers a projected move towards 95.35 (a further close below 98.78 confirms this)
- There is confluence around 95 with the long term (2011 - 2015) 62% also in this area
Sell short with a stop (on close) above 104.63 and a target of 95.35. Alternatively, less aggressive traders may look to enter short on any bid around 102.50 - 103.00 if a right shoulder is to form before testing the downside at 99.98
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