With the Fed and BoJ conducting their policy meetings Wednesday and Friday of this week respectively, technical levels are likely to be honoured in the meantime.
USDJPY currently trades at the level connecting the 24th June 98.79 low to the 21st July 107.49 high. According to FX trading desks 103.00 is identified as a potential buy zone for institutional client orders, which is approximately the next retracement level (50% 103.39).
ST: Expect a continued retracement towards 103.00-103.20, with support likely around the 61.8% at 102.11
LT: Should 102.11 fail, then confluence around the 100.70 level (78.6% @ 100.65 / 50% @ 100.71) provides an important for determining the next major move higher or lower (daily closing basis).
LT: Should 103.00-103.20 hold, then a successful break of the 2016 and two consecutive daily closes above the (2011-2015) 38.2% level at 106.65 would set up a rally back towards 114.00
As always, fundamentals come first and these technical levels serve to identify potential zones for you to manage your trades according to your fundamental view. Await news from the Fed and BoJ before speculating on technicals.