Hello everybody !
Today is NFP day !!!
This Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will be the first monthly labor market number to show the COVID-19 impact.
Economists are looking for only a 100,000 decline in payrolls because NFPs are measured as of March 12. The first state-wide stay-at-home order was not issued by California until March 20 and quickly spread across the nation in the days that followed.
By the end of March millions of U.S. businesses were shuttered but may not have laid off their employees until the end of the month.
As a result, we will not see the full extent of the damage until revisions are released next month and the April numbers will be ugly.
Numbers like this puts the U.S. economy at serious risk of recession especially as lockdown measures are extended to April 30, and will most likely extend well into May.
In addition to a forecasted 100,000 drop in NFP, the unemployment rate is expected to jump to 3.8% from 3.5%, while average hourly earnings growth should slow to 0.2% from 0.3%. USD/JPY will be the most sensitive to these numbers but there could be other opportunities as well.
If non-farm payrolls fall by 100,000 or less and the unemployment rate declines to 3.7% or better, the U.S. dollar will rally but the gains should be short-lived as investors eye any good numbers with skepticism.
Selling USD/JPY on a bounce should be the right move.
Personally I'm aiming around 20-25 pips on that news.
It's important to keep the risk management in mind so we are here to make money not to lose money so, if you aren't sure about news, it best for you to stay away. PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL !!!
Have a good day and a wonderful weekend !
Please hit the like and follow button !
Today is NFP day !!!
This Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will be the first monthly labor market number to show the COVID-19 impact.
Economists are looking for only a 100,000 decline in payrolls because NFPs are measured as of March 12. The first state-wide stay-at-home order was not issued by California until March 20 and quickly spread across the nation in the days that followed.
By the end of March millions of U.S. businesses were shuttered but may not have laid off their employees until the end of the month.
As a result, we will not see the full extent of the damage until revisions are released next month and the April numbers will be ugly.
Numbers like this puts the U.S. economy at serious risk of recession especially as lockdown measures are extended to April 30, and will most likely extend well into May.
In addition to a forecasted 100,000 drop in NFP, the unemployment rate is expected to jump to 3.8% from 3.5%, while average hourly earnings growth should slow to 0.2% from 0.3%. USD/JPY will be the most sensitive to these numbers but there could be other opportunities as well.
If non-farm payrolls fall by 100,000 or less and the unemployment rate declines to 3.7% or better, the U.S. dollar will rally but the gains should be short-lived as investors eye any good numbers with skepticism.
Selling USD/JPY on a bounce should be the right move.
Personally I'm aiming around 20-25 pips on that news.
It's important to keep the risk management in mind so we are here to make money not to lose money so, if you aren't sure about news, it best for you to stay away. PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL !!!
Have a good day and a wonderful weekend !
Please hit the like and follow button !