How Much Juice is Left in USDJPY Bulls?

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
721 9 5
One of the things I like about Elliott Wave analysis is that it helps us determine trend and where are are at in the trend.

I'm currently listing the pair as in wave (iv) of blue circle v of purple 5.

As you can tell by the count, we are approaching a major top. For those not familiar with Elliott Wave five waves are in the direction of that trend. According to the count above, we are approaching the ending wave at multiple degrees of trend.

Our 60 minute chart from yesterday suggests we may get one or two more shots higher. Wave relationships show up near 126-128. Shorter term traders may be able to catch another move higher. If that move takes place, a trader will need to be quite nimble.

Feel free to share your chart here...even if different. I'm always open to where/how I could be wrong.
Looking for a reverse at the top of wave 5.
IvanLabrie ew-forecast
Similar view, but I think DXY has already reversed...probably a leading expanding diagonal wave 1 (I know it would be strange, but it looks like that)

Agreed Ivan, except... I am a strong oil bear and although I believe the DX/Oil correlation will continue to disclocate to some degree, if oil drops, it could give the DX one last bounce. That along with FOMC question marks on the rates could also help spring the DX up. If that comes to fruition, once it is clear that any rate will be extremely moderate if they happen at all, I then believe the DX will then lose all ground that it gained in 2014.
IvanLabrie smitheric1970
It looks bullish to me, just coiling. The daily chart just gave me a nice buy signal too.
Target is 77.80.
JWagnerFXTrader smitheric1970
You bring up some good points Smitheric. Oil and Gold haven't moved up much with lately with the Buck weakening. It does suggest some underlying weakness for them.

One fairly consistent them I'm seeing is that there is a fairly stout expectation for a rate hike in the July-September range from the Fed. This means there is a high standard for Yellen to hit on today or we risk a 'surprise' wait and see.

I'm with you...I doubt they'll do anything. With that said, they have a huge green light from the market and if they don't go on green now, when will they ever hike?
Thank you for the chart.
A very nice count. Same view here.
+1 Reply
Great minds think alike. Essentially the same. Once the top is found, the question is how deep the correction digs.

The SSI reading has been fairly tame through this up trend. I would suspect a deep correction will drive people to buy the downtrend which may add more fuel to the downside as they become a future pool of sellers.
excellent analysis. Thanks
You're welcome fensydyl. Best of luck trading!
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