j_nathan
Short

USDJPY Butterfly /Bearish

FX_IDC:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
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5
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Leg BC is satisfied but could retrace down to its verification which opens the possibility of an .886 movement in the BC leg.
Otherwise its a simple jump down below 113 facing 108.

Fundamentals are also a big factor so big swings down to the BC .886 or up to the CD 1.618 are respectable long targets to shoot for.
I'm leaning down atm but the environment is volatile so we shall see early next week if the Bull regains footing or the Bear has just begun.
Comment: some 1 week notes

Comment: BC - .382 (108.458) - met
BC - .886 (101.206) - not met but still possible

this study began in the lower 113 valuation range
here we are 400 pips later with a gap filled and no sign of true reversal

I would be extremely cautious with any USD long bets for now, at least until we start seeing some nice bullish fractal 1day candle closes and more importantly 1week candles

reasons:
- BC fib .886 is still a factor in this study and we remain 800 pips away
- this pair is still active within a Bear channel established last year

Comment:

one week notes
not looking good for USD imho
a real tough battle since friday
UJ just cannot seem to shake out of these fib studys

since we havent broken into the sub 113 range will be looking for price action to decide where we go from here

leg D (up) is not close
leg C retrace (down) also, especially an 886 verify

but lets cross that road if/when

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still looks bear to me, watching some levels
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