DanV
Short

USDJPY - Major Trend Reversal (UPDATED)

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
987 18 11
When I last posted this chart, it never broke down out of the congestion zone it was in at the time and mounted another swing high. However, it is worth monitoring closely as it is now against many structural resistance and despite seeming strong swing is showing weaker momentum compared with previous major leg. With DXY             showing similar corresponding resistance and Momentum divergence.

Hence, potential reversal could have higher odds. Obviously the potential short could be considered on retracement as initial leg down appears near complete.

Be sure to do your analysis.
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Here is the monthly chart for perspective
snapshot
+1 Reply
Technician TOP
2 years ago
Pretty Bold
+1 Reply
DanV MOD Technician
2 years ago
Indeed, but one I hope is based on some logic.
Reply
Technician TOP DanV
2 years ago
Well.. lots of rational analysis you can find everywhere, yet few good results .. I can assure u that result is what really matter .
Reply
DanV MOD Technician
2 years ago
I am sure. Mine might fall into that category or not. We will have to see how it plays out. Thanks for your comments.
Reply
thanks for this post I think the decline continues if prices break 107.400 falls to 106.600
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
I agree, this is one interesting chart too, great EW analysis Danv.
Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thankyou. One chart that could get many traders wrong footed.
Reply
With the recent Fundamentals USD (Bullish rally from long term bear move) and BOJ policies to create inflation and devaluing the current, it is very hard for me to trust this clean technical chart. Here is a link which gives you the historical data from 1953. http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-graph-zoom.php?C1=USD&C2=JPY&A=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1953&DD2=12&MM2=10&YYYY2=2014&LARGE=1&LANG=en&CJ=0&MM1Y=1
Your assumed direction was correct. Kindly, Hamed
Reply
DanV MOD HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Thank you for your link to longer term chart. In fact that convinces me even more of potential long term falling wedge which commences from 1999 high and new down trend to resume with potential new lower low below 2011 low to complete this. The argument of USD being bullish and BOJ printing more YEN is probably over cooked and one that could catch many traders on wrong side of the trend. We shall see.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD DanV
2 years ago
Apologies, that was suppose to be 1991 top.
Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
For those who might wish to consider additional correlation analysis consider Nikkei 225 Index
Nikkei 225
and S&P 500 Index
SP500 Bearish Outlook - Close to forming Generational Top
Reply
DanV MOD DanV
2 years ago
SP500 Bearish Outlook - Close to forming Generational Top
Reply
DanV MOD DanV
2 years ago
Nikkei 225
Reply
traderWgun
2 years ago
The movement from 2011 low looks very impulsive.
What is the reason for you labeling it as corrective?
Is it the longer term price action?

Looking at the RSI, we got double RSI divergence, which is very common when the market has completed 5 waves up.
snapshot


I agree that we should see weakness in the short term for 2 reasons:
Dollar rally looks mature
Yen strength looks likely.

But the weakness in USDJPY should prove corrective.
I see no reason why one would look at this rally as corrective at the moment.

Good luck!
Reply
DanV MOD traderWgun
2 years ago
Because, as you know if we have major ending diagonal in down trend, then this would be wave 4 which now looks complete. Hence a zigzag could fit, still it allows for that strong rally which could be wave a or c, but those are difficult to fit in the patter so far.
Reply
2use
2 years ago
Nikkei is in the same spot.
Reply
DanV MOD 2use
2 years ago
Yes indeed, and they are highly correlated.
Reply
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