USD/JPY Sees First Daily Loss in Four Days Amid Shifting Mom...

USD/JPY Sees First Daily Loss in Four Days Amid Shifting Momentum

The USD/JPY currency pair has experienced a subtle shift in its recent trend, marking its first daily loss in four days. While lacking significant downward momentum as of late, certain factors are influencing the market sentiment. A recent report from the Japanese government has indicated a potential turning point in the country's long-standing battle with deflation, hinting at a change in stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Additionally, a mix of downbeat employment data from Japan and mixed concerns surrounding inflation are keeping buyers of the Yen hopeful.

As the pair bears assert themselves around the 146.40 level, a slight 0.10% dip has been recorded for the day, setting the tone for the start of Tuesday's European session. This shift in performance aligns with the evolving narrative concerning the Bank of Japan's stance and Japan's inflation conditions. However, concerns about the nation's employment landscape, as well as a sense of caution ahead of key data releases and events, are prompting sellers to play a role in the market.

Remarkably, Japan's Unemployment Rate surprised analysts by rising to 2.7% in July, in contrast to the expected and prior figure of 2.5%. Simultaneously, the Jobs-to-Applicants Ratio experienced a slight dip, coming in at 1.29 for the same month, just shy of the anticipated and previous reading of 1.30.

A significant development is the recent release of Japan's annual report, signaling a potential turning point in the country's inflation dynamics after a relentless 25-year fight against deflation. This shift in narrative has emboldened those who hold a more hawkish view regarding the Bank of Japan's policies.

Adding to the mix, the USD/JPY pair's traders were influenced by the somewhat mixed insights provided by Japan's Coincident Index for June and the Leading Economic Index for the same month. Notably, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda defended the current ultra-easy monetary policy during the Jackson Hole Symposium, referencing Japan's slightly below-target inflation.

Beyond Japan's economic landscape, the USD/JPY pair also faces pressures from subdued yields and a general weakening of the US Dollar. Ahead of the release of the US Consumer Confidence data for August by the US Conference Board (CB), the 10-year Treasury bond yields remain around 4.19%, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) has receded to 103.85.

It's worth mentioning that the yield on the US two-year bonds, which recently retreated from its highest level since 2007, continues to hover around 5.00%.

Conversely, financial institution Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the USD/JPY pair. With an optimistic outlook for US economic growth and factoring in the BoJ's commitment to its accommodative monetary policy, the projection for the USD/JPY pair has been raised to around 155.00, an increase from the previous prediction of 135.00.

In the days ahead, market participants will closely monitor the monetary policy decisions of both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan. These factors, coupled with broader risk-related triggers, will shape the trading sentiment for the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the awaited release of the US CB Consumer Confidence Index for August, expected to be around 116.2, will provide further insights into the market's direction, following the previous reading of 117.00.

Our preference

Long positions above 146.00 with targets at 146.75 & 147.10 in extension.

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