EverythingForex
Long

TRADE: BUY@121.580 Bought on Compleited Bullish Crab + Structure

FX_IDC:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
In a previous post (see Related Ideas: "TRADE: USDJPY: BUY@123.490 COMPLETED Butterfly + Structure"), I mentioned about this crab pattern . Prices had surged down past the butterfly pattern in that previous post and closed that trade. But now, prices have completed the crab pattern and I have initiated another LONG trade because of the crab AND also because of MAJOR SR Structure level. As you can see in this post, my wave count for this down move is that we have just seen a wave ( iii             ) of (v) and now should see a wave (iv) retrace.

Keep in mind that I am VERY BEARISH on this pair and am looking for a MAJOR move down (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: USDJPY: MAJOR Trend Change Forthcoming? ") so this LONG trade is just to catch a few pips on the rebound and nothing more. I will be looking for a good opportunity to get SHORT again and add to my overall SHORT positions.

Here's the view of the structure level that I am trading from:
snapshot

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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i am also long on usdjpy. but i think usd is very weak. lets see if my stoploss gets taken out.
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We'll see. I am holding till 120.000 on this pair. In retrospect, it wasn't a good trade and it isn't now either. Only reason I am holding on to it is because I already made lots of pips on the way down and can afford the drawdown now. Still not a good trade though even if it works out! GL!
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Thanks for your feedback and I am seeing very similar to what you're seeing as well with the 2.618 extension being 120.510

snapshot
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Thanks for the analysis. I however think wave 3 hasn't finished yet and still has a sub wave 5 of (3) @120.700 which is bang on the 2.618 fib ratio. Thoughts?
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Completely possible. I'm giving this trade extra room to the downside for just such a case as what my chart does show me is that there will be a retrace coming soon. Keep in mind this is a 4hr TF I'm trading off of so the drawdown needs to reflect that fact. I'm prepared to go down to 120.000 if needed. Why would I do this? Because when this wave 1 is over, the wave 2 retrace WILL retest the entire wave 1 and possibly retest the highs again before finally dumping.

So am I saying wave 1 is nearly over? This is why I am trading off this structure. It's the structure that I projected may initiate the rebound to retest the highs. Of course, I could be completely wrong or partially wrong (partially right?) but I must trade my plan and what I see. Remember, when trading off structure, you are NEVER trading off any single price point but a structure support/resistance range. So must also take the risk according to the TF you are trading from. Again, in this case, the 4hr TF needs more room to work. GL!
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This is how I see this wave iii having unfolded. I'm thinking it is just about finished....
snapshot
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