The current rally of USD against other major currencies has lost its momentum, except compared with EUR. However the current positioning shows extreme EUR short exposure (and USD long), it was very similar in June 2012. Currently investors are short in EUR in an extent of around 200K contracts, which indicate that further USD appreciation might be limited from the current level, simply because of missing further USD buying powder. If we look at the USDJPY
chart, the current triangle like formation hint, that the rally is over, or at least short term drop of the cross might come soon. Short term trend line
and recent doji
candles are my signals for a short entry and these also clearly show and excellent stop for the trade.