AndyM
Short

It's time to short USDJPY

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
433 6 10
Short position evidence:
1) Ascending structure is complete, confirmed by labelling and divergences
2) Descending structure has started, with the first impulse down already in place. Significant movement is expected (retrace of the whole wave 5 to 118.5).
3) An impulse is followed by a correction, which lasts substantially more than the impulse itself, thus confirming a loss of ascending momentum. Confirmed by structure ( 3-wave             , pullback to prev. resistance and rejection)
4) Previous swing-low of 124.08 has been bettered by the descending structure, last trendline decisively broken
5) Correlation with other instruments: SPX             is completing its last upswing, unlikely to shoot significantly higher

So, opening a short right now, SL above 124.5, 2-3% risk would make sense. The target should be 118.5 or lower.
Wow, right on the mark
+1 Reply
Changed your mind here?
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AndyM PRO IvanLabrie
well, this setup worked ok, but declining further than 117.70 will be hard if the setup I published today is valid. My trading plan for Sept it short EUR, long USDJPY, possibly long NIKKEI and long gold.
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Long Nikkei! That I didn't see coming.
Gold, silver and oil are interesting, watching for now, missed the best short entry sadly.
I'm with you on the instrument selection.
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there will be a bounce in all indices once we are done with this five-wave down. Nikkei is just more volatile than SPX, so will make sense to play a bounce up with it.
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snapshot

I can see why. Huge support right there. If it crosses down it still has a few layers of yen printed out of nowhere to cross. :)
If it somehow manages to cross below that chunk and form a large impulse, then it could be a seriously terrible scenario for years to come.
+1 Reply
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