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USDJPY: Bearish Gartley + New Wave Count Points To Wave 3 UP!

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
Recent price action has been typical of a consolidation wave in that.....IT'S CONFUSING! As a trader and analyst, it isn't unusual to have to go back and reanalyze things over to correct mistaken assumptions. But in this case, I've had to go back again and again and again! My last post on this pair I've already had to update with new corrections FOUR TIMES!
So I think I will just start a new thread of postings instead of updating the old series again. Besides, my new wave counts are something different than before. So here we go.....AGAIN.....

What you are seeing here on my chart is an ascending triangle pattern with a COMPLETED Bearish Gartley already in play. This bearish Gartley is within the triangle pattern and is showing the way down to the last leg (E) of the triangle. After prices reach near the E point, then I will expect that the next move up is the start of the wave 3 that I have spoken about often. There is a POTENTIAL bearish cypher (blue) that would complete not far from where prices are now but it is outside the triangle and if prices were to fill that now, it would break the triangle without completing the wave count and would therefore invalidate this current count. I would then need to AGAIN re-analyze the count and see what's going on. After the triangle has been completed with prices hitting the E point, then when prices do go up, it will encounter the cypher . We'll deal with that when it happens. But for now, this is what I see happening and soon. Possibly before the release of the ADP Employment Change later today.

OVERVIEW - DAILY CHART

snapshot
4Hr CHART
snapshot
CONCLUSION AND MY PLAN
Ok. So now this count is much clearer and simpler than the previous ones with all the crazy lines going everywhere, right? Simpler is better? Anyway, I will wait for prices to go down per the Gartley to complete the ascending triangle hitting the E point. Then I will see what the PA is telling me. If it is then showing signs of bullishness, I'll be taking a LONG position at the E point or near it to try to catch the next wave 3. For now, I'll sit on my hands and will not play the short on the Gartley as it is "only" about 40 pips. To me, not worth             the risk.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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thank so much
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very good Analysis - thank you so much.......i have a similar view :-)

Preparation for Flag-Trade:
Preparation for Flag-Trade


snapshot

shortterm flag trade: entry 124,55 / Initial SL: 123,85 / TP: 125,5-125,7
middleterm flag trade: entry 124,55 / Initial SL: 122,75 / TP: 129
I don`t trade that - it´s just a trading idea!

Pair with bullish FLAG
snapshot

Y€$ - the widge got triggered and bought! This pushed the pair to its last high @ 124.42. From reaching this high a chealthy consolidation started, the pullback stopped @ 38,2 fibo - the minimal correction level!
This consolidation is forming a bullish flag (blue). The buying signal is active when the pair is traded above 123,9 / 124,45. I see potential on the upside.
On the downside, the level between sma 200& ema 200 should be a strong support.
Prices below this level will turn the chart into bearish (middleterm)
former analysis:
Will the support <a href="/u/121/" target="_blank">@121</a>,5 hold and the bullish wedge be triggered?

Will the support @ 121,5 hold and the bullish wedge be triggered and bought?
If yes, then the shortterm target @ the upper side will be the upper edge of the longterm uptrend @ 129,5.
If the strong support @ 121,5 does not hold, a fast drop till target @ EMA200 @ 118 could appear.
Below the EMA 200 a drop till the longtermtrend @ 113,6 could be exspected.
If you like my analysis and find it useful, please take a second and hit the LIKE button and follow me. It takes some time to create these posts and your LIKES let me know it is helpful to you. As always, any comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.

Will the support @121,5 hold and the bullish wedge be triggered?
Will the support <a href="/u/121/" target="_blank">@121</a>,5 hold and the bullish wedge be triggered?
snapshot

Will the support @ 121,5 hold and the bullish wedge be triggered and bought?
If yes, then the shortterm target @ the upper side will be the upper edge of the longterm uptrend @ 129,5.
If the strong support @ 121,5 does not hold, a fast drop till target @ EMA200 @ 118 could appear.
Below the EMA 200 a drop till the longtermtrend @ 113,6 could be exspected.
If you like my analysis and find it useful, please take a second and hit the LIKE button and follow me. It takes some time to create these posts and your LIKES let me know it is helpful to you. As always, any comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.
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