DaveBrascoFX Updated   
CAPITALCOM:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
We closed onJan.2nd 2024 our short hedges, and now again all long bullish positions since 14th January 2021 are active.
Question:Is Trend Following ,,BUY-and-Hold Strategy? A nswer:Noway. We are not Buy and Hold investor,we take advantages of the ups and downs of the maets. We seel short or buy long at any giveen tradable market, with high liquidity and Capitalization. Lower liquidate markets are not interesting for us. Also volatile markets are in center of our focus . Trend following is the ultimate trading strategy you can be profitable over time at the markets.
Every trader can gain profits only if following the price and trends. So also a scalper could be a trend follower(on 30 secon chart TF).Other wise he will lose money, because he trades against the trend.
Questions which may are in your minds: How far can the market go? Answer. We are not predictive traders, as we follow the price only, becuase the price is the only unmanipulated indicator.All other indicators follow the price. It is possible to forcast the market for 3-5 days(60%-90% accuracy).But longer than that periode it is not possible, as many event or unexpected events(nature catastrophic scenarios LIKE Tsunami,..) make it impossible. Therefor anyone who says the market will (ofrecasting a time periode over 5D, is in our opinion not a seriouse trader)
Question3: Where is your stop and where your Take profit level?Answer: We have more than 150 different exit strategies- and entrie.Important is:To enter orexit exactly athe the right time . We dont set Take profit limits, as it is a very unintelligent way to limit the profits. Instead we limit the possible potential losses,based on mathematicalformulas, position sizing, position reducing, sty.out orders(When we are not allowed to enter,exit,or size the positions. This methode is proven based on our historical performance. Our ultimate goals are: Protection of the account, Maximum profits possible over time
Question 2: When do you take out your positions?ANWER.If stop hits(we do it immediately. We ignore all noises(News,opinions on minds or other places. ).We only respect the sinals of our trading system and its rules. ONLY.
Question:How deep can US dolalr fall? Answer:Until the bears lose control and the bulls take control over the bears again.
Question:How high can US Dollar go? Answer:Until the bulls lose control an the bears take contril over the bulls again.
Question: How can I find out where the bears /bulls losie control? Answer:There are many different ways. The real answer is your trading strategy: Remember you are also part of your trading strategy.The best trading strategy cannot help you, if you permanently hurt your trading rules(Every day changing your strategy,copy trading, listenning to other peoples opinions instead sticking to your rule. As you are the pilot or captain of your trading ystem you need to be extremyl and strongly diciplined. And follow the price:Trend.
There is no bull side,no bear side, but only the right side of the markets. The trend is your friend. Plan your trade and trade your plan.

During this time we trailed our stops, that are now on positive territory(above average long trend price.During this time we had 7 Big Taing profits (Thank our Hedging strategy. All Profits ,which we took during this long periode was on temporarily short hedge trades, that we excecuted and closed.

Because many of my followers asked me to explain this strategy, I have sketched and explained the key moments on the chart.
The advantages of this strategy are huge, a we are sworn trend follower,but on the same time take advatage of big key momentum periodes. It is irrelevant if you take the trades on higher TF like here mentioned on 5H TF or on 1 min. TF or other. Important is that you immediately take the signals. This is essential as we hedge for higher periodes of time.For instance it is not possibleto use the hedging strategy on lower TF or for 10,20, minutes or even below D, as the correlation comes in play.

Alsoyou need a very accurate trading system and strategy that gives very accurate signals.It is important to hedge only ,if positions are in profit.If positions are not in profit, only stop loss will protect the account. Therefor we use hedging strategis only to protect our mid and long term positionsBullish/Beaish positons).

As here many daytraders are at work, hedging will not help them, Therefor I recommand to learn trendfollowing strategies to stay as long as possible at the market, to gain the maximum potential of trend That will effort and needs patience. But the profits which are extremely huge will compensate all that effort. Thans on our position sizing formula it is also possible to size up or size down our positions at any given time.That way we make sure that the maximumdrawdown of the account not brea to 1% level. This is very important as because of the correlation orIV sometimes themaet can for a short time run against you, and you get wpedout with margin call, and then if the market runs in you desired or forecasted direction(But this time without YOU!!!) .

With this strategy ,that we are currently trading +99 Markets, the account is at all timewell protected.

The momentum is currently bullish again, The U.S. dollar accelerates higher as U.S. Treasury yields extend rebound following a poor performance in late 2023
Attention will be on the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later in the week.

The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, started the new year on the front foot, rising for the third consecutive session, supported by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note up 7 bp to 3.93%. In this context, the DXY index climbed 0.7% to 102.10 in early afternoon trading in New York, posting its biggest daily advance since October, ahead of high-impact events later in the week.

Key releases, including the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), will give an opportunity to assess the economic outlook and ascertain if projections of aggressive interest rate cuts for 2024 hold merit.

If manufacturing activity accelerates in a meaningful way and employment growth surprises to the upside, investors are likely to pare bets on deep interest-rate cuts, foreseeing that the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to slash borrowing costs substantially in a stable economy for fear of reigniting inflation. This scenario would be bullish for the U.S. dollar.

On the flip side, if the data disappoints and shows cracks in the economy, especially in the labor market, it would not be surprising to see the Fed's policy outlook shift in a more dovish direction, an outcome that would put downward pressure on yields and, by extension, the U.S. dollar. Any NFP print below 100,000 is likely to produce this response.

USD/JPY rallied off support on Tuesday but fell short of recapturing its 200-day simple moving average. If the pair stays below this indicator for too long, sellers could reload and make a comeback, setting the stage for a drop below 140.95, but further losses could be in store on a push below this threshold, with the next area of interest at 139.85.

On the other hand, if the bulls manage to propel the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA around 143.00, we could see a rally towards 144.80. Surmounting this obstacle may be difficult, but a successful push above it could establish favorable conditions for an upward move toward the 146.00 handle. Sustained strength might embolden the bulls to aim for 147.20.

However, the greenback was unable to maintain its upward momentum for long. Shortly after setting a new 2023 high in early October, DXY shifted lower, undercut by the sharp downward correction in real and nominal yields following benign inflation readings.

With inflationary forces downshifting, markets began to price in aggressive rate cuts over the next few years in an attempt to front-run the FOMC next easing cycle. The U.S. central bank initially resisted the pressure to pivot, but relented at its December meeting, when it indicated that "talk" of cutting borrowing costs had already begun.

The Fed’s pivot accelerated the pullback in yields, sending the 2-year note below 4.40 %, a significant retracement from the cycle high of 5.25%. Simultaneously, the 10-year note plunged beneath the 4.0% threshold, when weeks earlier it was threatening to breach the psychological 5.0% level. In this context, the U.S. dollar index plummeted, hitting its weakest point since August.

The Fed’s unexpected dovish pivot is a clear signal that officials want to shift policy in time to engineer a soft landing; in other words, they are prioritizing growth over inflation. This bias won’t change overnight, but will likely consolidate further in the near term, so the path of least resistance remains lower for both bond yields and the U.S. dollar, at least for the first couple of months of 2024.

Navigational winds, however, could shift in favor of the greenback by the end of the first quarter, when additional data will become available for a more complete assessment of the macroeconomic picture.

The significant relaxation of financial conditions observed in November and December, which ignited a powerful surge in stocks, is likely to amplify the wealth effect heading into the new year, helping sustain sturdy household consumption—the key driver of GDP. In this context, the prospect of an economic upswing in the medium term should not be completely ruled out.

Any reacceleration in growth should boost employment gains and reinforce labor market tightness, putting upward pressure on wages. In this environment, inflation could settle well above the 2.0% target while staying skewed to the upside, preventing the Federal Reserve from pursuing a forceful easing campaign.

Although there is a heightened sense of optimism regarding the U.S. inflation outlook following encouraging CPI and Core PCE reports in the latter part of 2023, it is premature to declare victory. Any pause in progress or an upward reversal of the underlying trend in consumer prices next year could be cataclysmic for sentiment, prompting a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations.

All longsmentioned on the chart above full active.We added more longs at 141,80and 142,065 Asia session
Bad Data for Dollar PMI OUR
The market waiting for Friday non farm
correcting continuation
Trend bullish

US data confirms the cooling narrative
The ISM manufacturing data suggests the sector continues to contract while job opening numbers point to a slower pace of hiring. Friday's jobs report will be key this week though, with the composition of jobs growth almost as important as the payrolls number itself in determining the prospect for rate cuts in 2024

Data provides an important test for recent market moves

Financial markets responded aggressively to the Federal Reserve’s dovish signals at the December FOMC meeting when their individual dot plots pointed to three rate cuts in 2024. This gave market participants the confidence to ramp up the pricing of potentially even more aggressive easing coming through, helped additionally by a very soft core PCE deflator print. Markets are now anticipating six 25bp moves, starting as soon as March.

We have been predicting 150bp of interest rate cuts in 2024 for some time, but we remain a little nervous that the market has moved so far so quickly even though the jobs market remains tight and the activity story right now remains pretty solid. March still looks a little early to us for the first rate cut – we favour May – and this week’s data flow will be important in gauging the potential timing of a first rate cut.
Manufacturing continues to languish

Today’s reports aren't especially conclusive though. The US ISM manufacturing index improved more than expected in December to stand at 47.4 versus the 47.1 consensus forecast and up from 46.7 level recorded in November. Nonetheless, this remains a weak report. It is the 14th consecutive sub-50 print – 50 is the breakeven level - indicating the sector has been contracting since the fourth quarter of last year. The details show production rose to 50.3 from 48.5, so there is a very modest increase in output given it is above 50, but new orders softened to 47.1 from 48.3 and the backlog of orders series also remained weak, suggesting production is likely to drop back below 50 again next month. As the chart below shows, it suggests ongoing stagnation is the most likely path ahead for the sector.

Employment rose to 48.1 from 45.8, but this is still below that 50 breakeven level so merely indicates that the pace of job shedding slowed in December. The good news is that prices paid fell back quite sharply to 45.2 from 49.9, suggesting very little inflation threat from the sector, giving the Fed the room to respond flexibly to incoming activity data

The jobs market remains key and further softening looks likely

Separately, the November JOLTS report data that showed the number of job openings fell to 8.79m in November from 8.852m in October. There were quite a lot of revisions, but the main takeaway is that the level is weaker than the consensus expectation of 8.821m and the trend shows businesses are becoming more cautious on hiring in general with the number of job openings at their lowest since early 2021. Admittedly, there are still significant numbers of vacancies, but hiring rates slowed to the lowest level since July 2020 and the quit rate – a measure of people willing to leave their job and used as a gauge to see how confident workers are they can find better-paid work elsewhere – dropped to its weakest reading since 3Q 2020. Consequently, it appears workers are noticing businesses are becoming more reluctant to hire staff.

A measure of US factory activity remained stuck in contraction territory for a 14th month at the end of 2023, restrained by weaker orders. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge edged up 0.7 point to 47.4 last month, helped by a pickup in production, according to data released Wednesday. Readings below 50 indicate contraction, and the figure was near economists’ expectations.
Daily Global Market Update
The Euro-Dollar pair experienced a slight decline in the last session, dropping by 0.2%. The Stochastic RSI indicates that we are currently in an oversold market condition.
Dollar-Yen Pair's Gains
The Dollar-Yen pair saw an increase of 0.7% in the last session. The RSI is currently giving a positive signal, suggesting potential continued upward movement.
Gold's Decline
Gold fell by 0.8% against the dollar in the last trading session. The CCI is currently giving a negative signal, hinting at a potential continued downtrend.

Global Financial Headlines
The US dollar has risen, bolstered by high US Treasury yields and a cautious market sentiment affecting Wall Street. Traders are now awaiting further economic data. Job openings in the US saw a decrease to their lowest level since March 2021, indicating a cooling job market. European markets have also experienced a sharp decline, with various sectors showing mixed performances.

Upcoming Economic Highlights
Key economic events to watch out for include the US ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, and Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, among others. These data points are crucial for investors and traders to watch as they provide insights into the economic health of these countries.

US ADP Employment Change - 1315 GMT
US Initial Jobless Claims - 1330 GMT
Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices - 1300 hours GMT
Spain's 30y Bond Auction - 0940 GMT
Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - 0030 GMT
Japan's Monetary Base - 2350 GMT
All longs open.We stay bullish.Because of Middle east tensions we believe US Dollar becoming stronger
Middle East tensions grow
Further tension in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher yesterday. ICE Brent managed to settle a little more than 3.1% higher on the day. Two car bomb explosions at a memorial for Qassem Soleimani (a senior Iranian general who was killed in a US airstrike in Iraq in 2020) left nearly 100 people dead. While it is not clear who was behind the attack, it only adds to the growing tensions in the region. In North Africa, Libya has also been forced to shut its largest oil field, Sharara, after protesters entered the field, which was producing around 270Mbbls/d ahead of the shutting.
Added more longs at142,89 143,01 143,85

ADP Number too strong
good for US DOLALR
Asia oPENED in yesterday´s Close range. ASIA OPENED
This indicates until 2:30 p.m est
we can potentially expect a balanced time
As the trend is bullish, the bears will get trapped during this periode.If todays US DATAS will be weak for US Dollar
USD/JPY breas below 144.469, then it can go to 143,617,
if breaking that level to 143.198
and then finding support at 142-878
if data are too weak fo USD
it potentially can fall deeper to 142,615 and 141.818
On the chart I have described the potential rik-reward levels. As trading involves riks, use always stops.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.

Trend strng bullih
We added more longs
Just bought USDJPYP again
at 144.207, 144,2789 and 144,385.

BECAUSE MY SYSTEM saying I should buy USDJPY.
This no recammandation, but sharing my trading ideas, and documenting it.
Always use stops
Protect your capital.Rule no. 1
Inflation in Japan's capital keeps slowing, takes pressure off BOJ

Core inflation in Japan's capital slowed for the second straight month in December, data showed on Tuesday, taking some pressure off the central bank to rush into exiting ultra-loose monetary policy. The Tokyo inflation data, closely watched as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, is among key factors the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will scrutinise at the next policy-setting meeting on Jan. 22-23. Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.1% in December from a year earlier, government data showed, matching a median market forecast.

US dollar pulls back

The trend is still bullish, I see no reason yet to cut or hedge the longs(This is no recoammandation, so please do not copy my trades, as I write them here also for myown documentations!!!!! And always use stops, and sticktoyour own tradding strateies, as neither me nor others here are Moneyy and fundmanagers, who are allowed to give anyy trading advices nor we are in a CFTC authorities list. We just share our trading ideas, whatfor we tae respnossibility only. But not for your trades!!!) Also Fed’s Bowman Backs Eventual Rate Cuts If Inflation Falls Further
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation could fall toward the Fed’s 2% target with interest rates held at current levels, and offered potential backing for lowering borrowing costs if price pressures fade. “Should inflation continue to fall closer to our 2% goal over time, it will eventually become appropriate to begin the process of lowering our policy rate to prevent policy from becoming overly restrictive,” Bowman said in prepared remarks to the South Carolina Bankers Association in Columbia. “We are not yet at that point,” she said, adding that she remains cautious with upside risks to ..
PPI improved.I stay bullish, but correction is coming.It will fall back to 142,885/14344
Yen Is Losing Haven Role as Japan Overseas Investment Shifts
The super-easy policy of the Bank of Japan has eaten into the yen’s status as a traditional haven for at least the last two years, but the currency reaction to the nation’s New Year earthquake suggests an even deeper issue for the once-favored safe asset. In past years the yen tended to strengthen following news of wars or catastrophes, as was the case following the quake and tsunami in 2011, because of speculation that Japanese investors would sell overseas assets and repatriate funds.
I stay long
1)Trend is bullish.I stay bullish.since 141,85
2) USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Higher US bond yields fueling upside momentum
USD/JPY has surged to fresh one-month highs, aided by a lift in US bond yields which widened interest rate differentials with Japan. Given the risk-off tone seen across broader markets, it’s clear the yen is no longer the safe haven play it once was.
3) BOJ to go slow in rate hikes after ending negative rate, says ex-central bank official
4) The Bank of Japan may end negative interest rates in April but will likely go slow in any further steps towards normalising ultra-loose monetary policy, the central bank's former executive Eiji Maeda said on Wednesday
Trend bullih
Trend Bullish.Corrction expected.I stay long
For sure: I stay bullish.What else....
Still long at 141,80 and I stay long and bullish, keeping following my trend following system,as the trend and price newve lie.UDJPY Strong bullish trend based on my analysis
Perfecr: 150+ Still long at 141,80 and I stay long and bullish,We go higher
i STAY BULLISH: Dollar get stronger
Yes! PMI Data,momentum and trend:All bullih. Ofcoure I stay long,and keep my long positions that I have opened at 141,85 open. Yes, an my system wanna me tying long, a it is expecting we go higher. Yes ,yes!I saty bullish ofcourse
Still Bullish,No change in my strategy, but currently no significant reason to add more bulls or cut longs I saty bullish
Still long from 141 area.Next profit targets longs: 149.135 target 2 149.587 target 3 149.762 Wit tobuy 147,800 area


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