QUICK ANALYSIS: USDJPY: Wave 4 About To End?

Wave 4? Huh? What the heck is this guy talking about? For those of you who have not been following me...that's probably what you are asking yourself right now.

Now, I know there is much speculation and differences of opinions on what is happening and that's alright. There needs to be differing opinions and people both buying and selling in order for there to be a market, right? So this is just my take on it and anyone is free to do with it as they wish. Some will probably just drop me in the DELETE pile and be done with me. That's OK.

So anyway, I've been posting for as long as i can remember (yes, that's because I'm getting old and can't remember too far back...honey, where'd I put my glasses? Dear, they're on your HEAD! LOL). on this pair that there has been a MAJOR TREND REVERSAL that is just starting and we are in for a few months of declining prices here. Keep in mind when I say that, it DOES NOT mean i am expecting prices to just DROP! But what I am saying and have been saying is that we are in a corrective phase now. With that in mind, I just wanted to update a little bit on this pair because the recent price movements may have caught a few people by surprise.

In chart above I am showing a POTENTIAL bearish shark pattern that may signal the completion of the wave 4 if my wave count is correct. If my wave counts are correct, then I am expecting a wave 5 down to start soon. This wave 5 down would complete the initial wave (A) of the MAJOR CORRECTIVE trend that is now in motion. Also, if this does happen, it goes to further confirm that the MAJOR TREND has truly turned. But for now, I'm looking for prices to move up a little more to again reach the .618 retrace of wave 3 down and possibly form a double top here or break above and complete the shark. I'll be watching for either to occur.

BTW, I did not post the 5-0 pattern along with the shark in this case because for me, I do not believe the 5-0 pattern (which of course, would be a BULLISH 5-0) is going to reverse prices and turn this pair bullish. Prices may respect the 5-0 when it gets there and may stall there but eventually should be a failed 5-0 pattern. So in the overall scheme of things, it doesn't matter to my outlook.

OVERVIEW - Daily Charts: Then & Now
Here's my chart from 28 days ago on this pair and what I thought was about to happen back then.....

Here's the same chart with the same wave counts updated to today but without the bat pattern because that was filled and trade finished for a nice +789 pip profit.....

MY TRADE PLAN
I am still holding quite a few SHORT positions from previous trades. I will be looking to ADD a few more positions whenever I get bearish price action off of either the .618 double top formation or the shark completion. I AM NOT placing standing orders to SELL at those points. I need to see bearish price action in order for me to take any trade. Obviously, once in a SHORT trade, I will be holding for the completion of the crab in the DAILY chart.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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