First, I'm NOT saying that this is the very top and that prices will go down from here on out. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't. What I am saying is that at this point, I see a move down occurring and not anymore move up for the time being. In other words, I see this pair moving into a corrective phase with the most recent highs holding firm. So at this moment, we could be at the beginning or top of the downward corrective move. How long and how far it will go down? I don't know.
WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW TO MAKE ME THINK THIS WAY
Admittedly, I've waffled on this pair a few times. A month ago, I called a top. In fact, I went so far as to say that the wave 1 (or wave A) down had already started (see Related Ideas: "USDJPY: Analysis - Why Is It Going Down?"). At the time, the most recent high was at 125.846. I labeled that point to be the end of the wave 5 of the long impulse wave up started back about a year ago. Since that post, I had changed my wave count a couple of times saying that the wave 5 had not yet finished. Well, after re-analyzing things again and taking recent PA into account, the only conclusion I could make was that I was correct a month ago: wave 5 is now over and wave 1 (wave A) has already started making it's way down.
On this chart above, I show my updated wave count showing wave 5 as finished. And I also show a COMPLETED which I posted 20 days ago (see Related Ideas: "RE-ANALYSIS: USDJPY - What I Am Expecting (HINT: Move)"). This D point is at 124.681 even. The recent PA just filled it. I also have a small POTENTIAL waiting to be filled that could point to a small retrace back up before continuing down in a wave b.
OVERVIEW - MONTHLY CHART
CONCLUSION AND MY TRADE PLAN
I'm already short in the market from 125.00 via the NFP price action. I had been expecting the NFP to cause prices to shoot up much higher as prior to the NFP, I had NOT been calling for the wave 5 end and was expecting it around the 127-128 levels. But when I saw the negative number come out for the NFP and yet prices had headed up, this was a sign of a fake out to me and so I took a SHORT at 125.00 also knowing that the I had posted 20 days ago was now filled and ready to go.
There is the small loomnig but I don't believe it is going to send prices heading back up significantly though you never know for sure. When prices reach and fill that , I'll take some profits and wait to see what happens. If prices retrace a bit and then turn back down and violate that , I'll add more SHORT positions.
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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