Kumowizard
Short

USDJPY - Pull back, but how deep it can go?

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
229 2 6
- JPY has lost almost 60 % ag USD in last 2,5 years
- US rate hike is priced in (if it happens at all, I don't know)
- Japan macro figures have started to improve (Retail sales, consumption, CPI             )
- BoJ is still dovish, but I have the feeling they already have the Exit Strategy from QE: they will simply buy all bonds,Japan will finally do a 70 % haircut on its debt or completely erase it which will not be a default, since they will hold it all as domestic. Maybe that part which is still held by some intl investors/institutions will be either paid out or will be swapped to new issues.
- When global risk off hits mkts, JPY tend to perform quite well. (unwind of carry trades, etc.)

So, my point here is that ok, the trend is Bullish . But ljust like in case of equities I do not see a lot more juice in this ccy to be squeezed. I don't say it can not spike to 128-130, but from now on I think we should become less and less bearish on JPY. Maybe it is not that sht any more as it looks like.

Weekly:
- Bullish Ichimoku setup, bullish trend . Kijun Sen is catching up to price. Ultimate bullish support will possibly be around 116-117,50 (as trendline and Senkou B will catch up higher later)
- Heikin Ashi signal turns bearish . The pull back started two weeks ago, we saw some hesitation last week and it looks like a bearish continuation now, but this week has just started.
- Within the major bullish trend channel we also have a possible bearish wedge , which together with Kijun Sen makes 120,85 level even more important

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup has turned back to neutral, Price breaks below Kijun Sen and tests Kumo support. Weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross. Watch the possible wedge! In case lower side is broken, which also means a Kumo break, then sellers can take control and push price towards 118.
- Heikin Ashi signal is firm bearish now, pull back in progress.





Waiting for the fill...taking a long time.
Today should do it I guess.
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My take?
It will hit the weekly kijun sen level and reverse.
I have two limit buys at 121.915 and 120.644 respectively, invalidation below 119.372,
Looks like a potential rally into the 137 area until the end of the year, minimum retest of the high.
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