- US rate hike is priced in (if it happens at all, I don't know)
- Japan macro figures have started to improve (Retail sales, consumption, CPI )
- BoJ is still dovish, but I have the feeling they already have the Exit Strategy from QE: they will simply buy all bonds,Japan will finally do a 70 % haircut on its debt or completely erase it which will not be a default, since they will hold it all as domestic. Maybe that part which is still held by some intl investors/institutions will be either paid out or will be swapped to new issues.
- When global risk off hits mkts, JPY tend to perform quite well. (unwind of carry trades, etc.)
So, my point here is that ok, the trend is . But ljust like in case of equities I do not see a lot more juice in this ccy to be squeezed. I don't say it can not spike to 128-130, but from now on I think we should become less and less on JPY. Maybe it is not that sht any more as it looks like.
- setup, . Kijun Sen is catching up to price. Ultimate support will possibly be around 116-117,50 (as and Senkou B will catch up higher later)
- Heikin Ashi signal turns . The pull back started two weeks ago, we saw some hesitation last week and it looks like a continuation now, but this week has just started.
- Within the major channel we also have a possible , which together with Kijun Sen makes 120,85 level even more important
- setup has turned back to neutral, Price breaks below Kijun Sen and tests Kumo support. Weak Tenkan/Kijun cross. Watch the possible wedge! In case lower side is broken, which also means a Kumo break, then sellers can take control and push price towards 118.
- Heikin Ashi signal is firm now, pull back in progress.