JWagnerFXTrader
Short

Mexico's Central Bank Talks; Sell Off Probability Elevates

FX:USDMXN   U.S. Dollar/Mexican Peso
800 2 8
Yesterday, Banco de Mexico (Mexico's central bank) announced a committment to sell 200 million USD daily, if needed to contain the Peso sell off. Though this trend has been firmly planted to the upside, symptoms of a pause are bubbling up to the surface.

The Banco de Mexico news comes at an interesting time.

1) Elliott Wave Count - We could be near the termination point of wave (C) or wave 3. Either way, a noticeable sell off is higher likely back towards 15.00-15.20

2) Wave relationships - As noted on the chart, wave (C) = 1.618* wave (A) near 16.44. Even if we are finishing wave 3 (not shown), wave 3 = 2.618* wave 1 = 16.71

3) Sentiment - According to the COT report, speculators (non-commercials) are the most short the MXN (ie-long USDMXN             ) over the last 10 years - scroll down towards the bottom of the report below
( http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/cot/2015/07/27/Gold-Ownership-Profile-Back-at-December-2013-Level.html?CMP=SFS-70160000000Nc3HAAS )

Since the trend is firmly planted to the upside, use Thursday's high as the risk level. From near current levels this provides a better than 1:2 risk to reward ratio. When consistently applied, a positive risk to reward ratio alleviates the need to be right on every trade.
FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Hello, thanks for the information, i had a good technical setup but was stopped out by a few pips, may be i will try to short again nex week.
USDMXN-perfect crab visible W1 chart
Reply
rick.alter.35
a year ago
nice!
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out