justatrader
Short

USDNOK - Time to short

FX:USDNOK   U.S. Dollar/Norwegian Krone
Update from the previous chart for USDNOK             , we see three patterns confirming the target of 5.83530,

Risks:
20/05: Norway GDP release forecast 1.34%. Prev 1.1% y/y | forecast 1.52%. Prev -0.2% q/q
22/05: Unemployment rate. Its been stable at 3.5%, so any downside reading could pose some threats to this trade.
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HexVex
2 years ago
Lets hope DX1 doesn't get over 80.60 by much and the US GDP is a total wipe out tomorrow :)
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justatrader PRO HexVex
2 years ago
Just noticed that the GDP estimate is -0.6%... very very bearish estimates, so any small improvement could see some bullish sentiment in the market (esp. if it comes higher than 0.1%) and/or any upward revision to prelim GDP numbers. I'll be looking to reduce my exposure and instead of putting in a pending sell at 6.00035, will wait for price action to evolve at that level and see how it goes.
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justatrader PRO HexVex
2 years ago
Also as long as 6.025 holds, the trade should be safe I would assume.
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I missed the H&S pattern, which seems to have been validated so 6.0035 is the obvious upside target. Will have to see how this will play out.
snapshot
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HexVex
2 years ago
Missed that too :(
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If the current bearish action is anywhere close to entry, i'd suggest a partial or a full close depending on the no. of $$'s in profit or loss. Wait till the GDP is released... it looks like the actual print could be better than the estimates.
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HexVex justatrader
2 years ago
I'm already out although my timing could have been better. I agree, if GDP is a tiny bit better than expectations market will react.
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Who would have thought... -ve GDP and nothing. So I guess the neckline of the H&S would be tested today and tomorrow or next week a bounce to 6.00 level. Markets are irrational!!
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HexVex justatrader
2 years ago
Amazing! No movement at all in the market Wet armpits for nothing :) Would you long it until 6.00? I'm not so sure.
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justatrader PRO HexVex
2 years ago
No longs. Would rather wait till it hits 6. Other pair i'm watching is EURNOK.. Its ripe for a retracement. Been bearish for a long time.
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HexVex justatrader
2 years ago
What will make the EUR go up against NOK with Draghi on stage next week? SEK makes sense but NOK? Norways main trsding partner is the EU perhaps?
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justatrader PRO HexVex
2 years ago
Inflation data is due on Monday... So by Thursday i hope to see some kind of retracement back to 8.2 or 8.0 before the drop towards 7.95. But just speculation for now. Will have to take a look closer to the dates.
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