Victor.Y.F
Long

Looking big picture, FRB votes soon anything is possible.

FX:USDOLLAR   Dollar Index
This is a key moment which is hedge is playing. I’m still looking for a new high of us dollar index             .
1, It’s a monthly 5 wave from 2011, I believe in 7 waves too but this is a 5 wave with RSI divergence.
2, Because it’s a 5, I’ll use some tools for measuring 4th. wave and 5th. wave from monthly weekly and daily.
3, Now, we’re at monthly wave 3rd. of 3rd. and in a minor wave 5th. which means we have an ending diagnose.
4, An ending diagnose is a 5 wave with 4th. wave overlaping the 1st. wave.
5, If 5th. wave is an 1.618 wave 4 (pattern believers have a deep crab trend change area.) target is about 12467.
6, If 5th. wave is equal to the 1st. wave we’’ve passed that target already.
7, If 5th. wave is a 0.618- 0.764 area from 1st. to 4th. we have 12743- 13005.
8, So the monthly 3rd.wave target is 12400- 12743 area considering it' a huge move, profits taking begins from 12345.
9, Only FRB rises rates 0.25% in Nov. 2015 will trigger this scienario. After that a monthly 4th. wave is underway.
Comment: If this happens, sorry for my lazy there is a new cycle trend line from 2014, USdollar will be supported at 12000. Please check my EURO weekly chart for details.
Comment: Now it's holding at 12040, let's see if it's broken or rises to new high.
Comment: Today’s data showed that US core CPI rised from 0.1% to 0.5% in Nov. 2015 and let’s see if 12040 is hold or a fake break this weekly candle closing then a huge rise after FRB rises rates next week.
Comment: Thank you for your likes! The No.9 should be " Only FRB rises rates 0.5%". My point of view is the amount of rates and the announcement after that will decide FX market to be trended or to be ranged next year. I suggest that traders should avoid trading at this time stage.
Comment: FRB is very close, the most interesting thing is: USdollar index is hold the lower channel 12040 for several days no matter what other pairs are doing, they are just one pair down and the other is up they are obviously supporting the key level. I’ll keep watching it… ...
Comment: Watch out! USdollar index key lower channel support 12040 is breaking… … as EURO is rising up over 1.10000. The move will be huge and we still have FRB vote 2 days later.
Comment: Again, a retest and hold the thin- red- line. Now, JPY becomes supporter. Meanwhile, SPX, DAX, NIKKEI are all forming their right shoulders. See my analysis about nikkei225 "bulls are gonna be back soon, after many bear traps of cause" for more detail.
Comment: The thin-red-line was successfully defended. Now let's see how high the 5th. Wave can go.
Comment: Here comes the key support level again. But the problem is now ECB is holding their purchase. Sterling is rising because of rising rates will be the next move. Cad is in a trend pulling back and JPY looks like being against all G7 currencies. Oz and Kiwi are benefiting from carry trades. So how could G7 currencies support dollar is a big question. I think the answer maybe the CHF's devaluation. I don't trade CHF because in Jan. 2015 SNB suddenly canceled 1.2 bottom of EUR/CHF. I'm expecting they will attack market again but this time they will devaluate CHF massively for correcting their faults in Jan. 2015. As an apology to FRB and a gift to fx market in Jan. 2016.
Comment: Looks like CHF started devaluating tonight, 4th. Jan the message will be delivered to medias which is too late for 6 days from my prediction.
Comment: A new year gap. The monthly main rising 3rd. wave's sub 5th. wave is underway. As predicted a month ago.
Comment: I'm expecting the 5th. wave is an extending wave could reach as high as 13400
" After I did a simple maths, then I realized that if we started from 0.5% with a mid- value 1.375% then we will have a USdollar 2.25% intersts before Dec. 2016. "
Comment: This one is breaking the caps now. Let all bears be trapped. CRBQ has the negative correlation with it. Good lucky to all EUR buyers and Gold buyers.
Comment: Sorry for my typing. Good luck.
Comment: Unfortunately this one didn't reach 5th. Wave target and a truncated intervention by FRB. I think FRB is supplying the market just like the situation in 2009, an inflation and risk assets purchasing.
Comment: This one actives again. Let's see if ECB fires this 5th. wave. After G20 thing's back to track now.
Comment: Still has some more downward space to go and an huge bounce.
Comment: 5 months ago, we predicted a weekly EW impulse 5th. wave ended at 12304, which was shy of the 12345 target. Now it's the monthly 5th. wave, target is 13400. Let's see if we could get there, soon.
I have to say, sometimes my analysis is surprising myself, just like this one. I'm still a apprentice for EW wave, I have a lot to learn.
Comment: I think the daily second wave is done now, expecting major waves incoming, huge move by rising rates in June and July. Even if it's not a second wave, a very good RR trading here too. Tighten your stops guys, huge waves ahead!
Comment: We're at key channel support.
snapshot
Comment: FXCM dollar is calculated by 4 currencies, eur, jpy, aud, gbp. I checked the formulation but nothing can be seen because it's the positions holding weighted index. We don't know how many are those positions. I just follow the chart. If we breach the channel then big 5 will be invalidated.
Comment: Watch out! 12174 is the right shoulder! ( thick blue dotted line in first published chart) Don't be trapped in us dollar! If the major wave 5th. is invalidated, a new range expanding is forming in the chart shown above.
Comment: Daily chart view......
snapshot
Comment: The classic 5 wave but this is weighted from 4*25% EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD net positions. EUR and AUD look no good for the last wave but GBP and JPY could help it. Especially GBP could be weaker. JPY is very political one, it depends on Trump's trade deal. 13000 should be reached in 2017.
snapshot
Comment: To be clear, this is NOT DXY. DXY is mostly weighted by EURUSD and DXY has all time negative correlation with EURUSD by mathematic equation. I don't want to teach you guys but forex has some basics ABC where you don't know. Be civilized, ok? Not just a robot trader or a scalper.
Comment: The entire 5 wave sequence has been completed at 12635 on Jan. 2017, please check out the chart I published on the 14th. Jan. 2017( which has been drawn in 2015 but it hasn't been updated) An final rising channel has been breached.
The 12040 is where the most prices has been traded from Mar. 2015 to Oct. 2017, also the Trump election day's low is at 12011 which has been tested in two weeks. The way is down in a condition 12040 is holding. If there's any squeezing to break the Trump day's low, it will be a very good opportunity to take a bullet train on the way.
This is the FXCM US dollar index which is different from DXY, but this chart is hinting us the DXY's future.
Without bias but with an evolution - Victor.Y.F
Comment: This is NOT a trading signal... for analysis only. If scalpers trade this, it might lead to an huge risk which could blow your account.
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