I think the move that began in Jan 2018 is an ending wedge, of which wave 1-4 are already completed and even wave 5 is half done. This interpretation is aligned with the rest of the currencies, takes into account the dynamics in the treasuries, stocks and crude oil. We are waiting for one last, extremely overextended move, reaching to at least 140.
Can we go higher than 140? I think we can. I'm looking at the dynamics in the Moscow real estate index provided by IRN, where the Moscow prices per sq.meter currently stand at around 200kRUR / 2.6k$. The USD prices have been falling impulsively since 2008, and the wave structure of the index in USD suggests one last drop in wave 5 to around 1000$, which should match the last spike in the RUR exchange rate, before a large multi-year correction sets in.
So I think we can very well see 160 in USDRUB, which should bring the real estate prices in Moscow closer to 1k$ target.
Can we go higher than 140? I think we can. I'm looking at the dynamics in the Moscow real estate index provided by IRN, where the Moscow prices per sq.meter currently stand at around 200kRUR / 2.6k$. The USD prices have been falling impulsively since 2008, and the wave structure of the index in USD suggests one last drop in wave 5 to around 1000$, which should match the last spike in the RUR exchange rate, before a large multi-year correction sets in.
So I think we can very well see 160 in USDRUB, which should bring the real estate prices in Moscow closer to 1k$ target.