AndyM

Wave C of 5 still due

Long
MOEX:USDRUB   U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble
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7
I think the move that began in Jan 2018 is an ending wedge , of which wave 1-4 are already completed and even wave 5 is half done. This interpretation is aligned with the rest of the currencies, takes into account the dynamics in the treasuries, stocks and crude oil . We are waiting for one last, extremely overextended move, reaching to at least 140.

Can we go higher than 140? I think we can. I'm looking at the dynamics in the Moscow real estate index provided by IRN, where the Moscow prices per sq .meter currently stand at around 200kRUR / 2.6k$. The USD prices have been falling impulsively since 2008, and the wave structure of the index in USD suggests one last drop in wave 5 to around 1000$, which should match the last spike in the RUR exchange rate, before a large multi-year correction sets in.

So I think we can very well see 160 in USDRUB , which should bring the real estate prices in Moscow closer to 1k$ target.

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