Jiugaz

Don't get delusional about ruble

FX_IDC:USDRUB   U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble
Fundamentals: After a sudden rise in mid December, USD have seen a drastic fall in the new year with oil price rising, yet long term trend is still up. Threat of new sanctions and Central Bank of Russia staring buying foreign currency in Jan 15 creates new selling pressure for ruble. New inflation from rising VAT from 18 to 20% won't help it either. RUB may get supported by rising oil prices and (possible) increase in key interest rate, which may delay the rise of USD by a few months.
Technicals: a huge symmetric triangle formed at Oct 2, 2018, breakout point is between February and June 2019. Target is at 74-75 RUB/USD in second half of 2019. This pattern may also end up as a cup and handle, but it's too early to tell.
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