IvanLabrie
Short

USDSGD: The top could be in, or close

FX_IDC:USDSGD   US DOLLAR / SINGAPORE DOLLAR
231 20 11
2 years ago
There's a distinct possibility that we will see either a major correction or a larger scale reversal in this pair, in 3 weeks or sooner, according to the methodology that I use, which is time at mode.
For the channel enthusiasts, we got an intermediate term downtrend channel top upper barrier above, in the area of very strong resistance, which I derive from my own techniques (not the channels or fibonacci, but what Tim West taught me).
This pair is under constant central bank control, since it's a managed float, and based on the technical elements I suspect they will shrink the exchange rate fluctuation band soon.

I'll update once I see a clear short setup with defined risk and reward variables, and a high probability.
Hope everyone has a good weekend, cheers!
Ivan.
a year ago
Trade closed: target reached: To the pip, and right on time.
If you're interested in joining my trading newsletter or private lessons, message me. I trade Forex, Equities and Commodities. Contact: skype @ ivanlabrie, PM here or QQ (2954487803).
dingying85
2 years ago
Hi Ivan,

Thanks all for the nice charts. Can I ask what could be the effect of USD going down? does that mean a bottom for oil and gold are coming?

Ying
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO dingying85
2 years ago
It's probable, it could also mean the market gets disappointed if Yellen maintains the 'be patient' stance regarding interest rate hikes for the dollar. If that happens, we will see a broad dollar correction, not necessarily a reversal (although possible).
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http://www.mas.gov.sg/News-and-Publications/Speeches-and-Monetary-Policy-Statements/Monetary-Policy-Statements/2015/Monetary-Policy-Statement-28Jan15.aspx

" MAS will continue to be vigilant over developments in the external environment and their impact on the domestic economy, and stands ready to curb sharp movements in the S$NEER"

I expect the April MAS intervention to help this pair correct, and send the USDSGD down.
Timeframe for my correction was 3 weeks or less...March has exactly 2 weeks left as of today.
I'll update with an aggressive entry setup once the time is due.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
snapshot
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Beautiful weekly bar so far!
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
snapshot


Daily chart offers a 65% chance entry.
TP half at the recent low and move stop to BE in case it continues lower to the following support levels.
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dingying85 IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I guess this may cause the commodity price goes up today? like gold, oil...
lower dollar price may pump up them?
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IvanLabrie PRO dingying85
2 years ago
It's a two way street, one affects the other. Commodity prices affect the dollar, or it could also be that the commodity prices are being affected by dollar fundamental events like today's fomc meeting.

The trade entry I posted is a potentially very good one if this trade evolves like I suspect it will.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Entry was stopped, better wait for another setup.
Looks like conflict from a higher timeframe, daily might be too short term to work...
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dingying85 IvanLabrie
2 years ago
which means, the oil and gold still not bottomed...
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IvanLabrie PRO dingying85
2 years ago
Possibly.
It can also mean that we need to look at the weekly to confirm the trades, or wait for a new setup on the daily.
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snapshot


Few more days until the last uptrend signal expiration.
Price is already looking bearish, I'll post a suggested entry as soon as possible.
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dingying85 IvanLabrie
2 years ago
i guess that is why the energy and natural resources stocks are shooting higher today
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IvanLabrie PRO dingying85
2 years ago
Time to cover shorts...probable DXY rally now.
snapshot

Suggested entry, if you want to ride the last wave up.
1 atr stop under the previous low, you can also wait for the timer to expire. Both work.
Target is speculative, it will go higher than that.
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Working beautifully...
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Nice range expansion to the downside...wonder if this pair will follow the DXY march to a new high or retest of the highs or just head down now. I suspect down after this correction.
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snapshot
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Short still valid, on a weekly basis.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Hope everyone jumped in on this one.
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The top WAS in.