mkanik
Long

Regression analysis from break up candle.

FX:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira
New trend formed. Recent manipulations won't change the target. 15 years of economic deficit releases the energy. Although short term actions suppressed the trend, Turkey hasn't changed it's economy policy. The results will be seen on the chart soon. The reason for plunge in TRY isn't Bruson or any other reason but the wrong economic policies. Sanctions and problems with US only changes the speed of the surge. In the intermediate run i can see clearly that the USDTRY will remain over 7.5 and maybe 10ish soon. I hope Turkey can figure out a way from the hole they dig. The most likely the solution is lowering the wages and salaries. Reducing the expenditures and stop doing constructions with a pledged profit. At this point, borrowing money and using this money for manufacturing, tourism and agriculture can be a solution. However, the political environment has worsen recently. Foreign investors escaped and not planning to return. The country listed as 150th safe place to visit in spectator index. So far, the policy that they devoted their life was played a major role for recession. Now higher interest rates won't be able to stop it. Very high inflation levels are coming. Unfortunately, tax payer citizens will suffer very badly. I almost dropped tear during the economic fall. But the economy is no joke and doesn't care about feelings. I hope to analyze the chart in the reverse fashion in the future.

Comments

Around 200 billion dollars capital that belongs to City Of London is coming to Turkey via China in coming months.
Obviously Lira will hit another low until that happens.
Reply
@WACD, British people are smart and don't like to invest on a trash! However you got this idea, neither China nor England have no interest in rise of Turkey. To be honest, no body even cares about Turkey. Turkey is just one step above Greace, and the only reason why foreigners want it up is Turkey needs to pay back the borowed money that they used in construction making and corruption. But next couple of months, there will be a fine to Turkey from United Nations about the corruption they made with Iran together via Hall Bank, which is expected around 100 billion dollars. Total dollar reserve of the Turkish Central Bank is 30 Billion dollars. Any investment in Turkey at this moment is trash investment, irrelevant who is the investor as long as the jurisdiction and economy doesn't change. Only thing that might save the country now is the making bit oin the official currincy!
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WACD mkanik
@mkanik, Apparently you have no idea about Belt and Road project. And whos behind it.
Reply
You read graphics and economic realities very good! well done!
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