4xForecaster

$USD v. $TRY - Another Step-By-Step | #turkish #lira #forex

FX:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar/Turkish New Lira
Friends,

As the $NZDJPY trade is well on its way (although, we are not assuming that it will reach targets, but only that we are moving along with the probability that it would do so - See its analysis and step-by-step developments here:
$NZD v. $JPY - This WW Might Rest At #fibonacci Before Rallying
), we are now turning to another potential short.

Whereas the $NZDJPY was heavier on basic technical conditions (Fibonacci levels), as well as a few occult geometric             concepts (nodes, nodules ... Feel free to Google             these terms, as well as E.A.G.L.E. if you like to discover these concepts), the case of the $USD vs. $TRY is a bit more involved and complicated, since we are looking at the Geo             .

What I would like to do here is to raise a few challenging questions, and after a few minutes, provide a simple and logical answer within the thread, hopefully keeping things as simple, linear and interesting as possible.

I am not interested in being right. I simply follow the rules that I have defined for the Geo             , and I stick to the rules that are imposed by the developing Geo             . It's that simple. There is no opinion, just objective data which you too can assimilate, ingest and regurgitate. Yum.

Let's start with a BLANK chart of $USDTRY ...

See you below.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor
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So, are you seeing what I am seeing?

If you are used to the Wolfe Wave, you might possibly develop a flare for the Geo.

Here is the chart as a blank slate, besides a myriad of lines. Do not think of these are prices. Markets. Buyers, Sellers. Profit opps. Just look for a horizon line, that which is defined bu the highs and the lows (much as the skyline of a city - yes, cheezy, that is one way to look at things).


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D.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Here is what jump to sight:


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D.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
1 - A rising horizon line at the top
2 - A rising horison line at the bottom
3 - A convergence of these lines


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D.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Now, I will set up the "tolerance lines", which define the level beyond which this Geo will cease to exist (i.e.: invalidation conditions)

First, I transpose the bottom line, which I know to call the 2-4 Line (Don;t worry, we'll plot these points and name them later on, so as to not clutter the field).

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D.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
At this point, I have defined the levels at which point the Geo will cease to be valid ... These lines are extended 9using TradingView's extension features, as well as using a dimmer color) ... Keeping things clean, here is what we get:


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D.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Now, let's call the points, for reference sake.

Here is what we get:


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D.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Now, you might ask:

"Hey, why did you set up Point-4 there, and not any ther place?"
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
ANS:

I do NOT know where Point-4 might be as a final residence, but YOU will see that the Geo will require constant adjustment of the 2-4 Line, which is the most "abstract" line ... Until the 1-3 Line is crossed, that is, which would be the moment Point-5 is defined.

Kapish?


(I'll assume you 'kapished' that)

D.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Now, at this point, let us assume that we are dead-wrong.

You should always be looking for things that can prove you wrong instead of being found by things that prove you wrong.

Here, I know that the Geo demands a certain set of conditions:

1 - The 1-2 Leg should represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry

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(Oddly enough, you have to start with the cd segment FIRST, and seek a level of projection that defines Point-1 ... It'd be best if video'ed, but that'll be for another time. For now, it's a frame by frame deal you get.

D.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Next, Rule #2:

2 - The 2-3 Leg should be an Elliott Wave complex ZZ, such as a TZZ ... Instead, we are getting this Bullish EW impulse, with a 5th wave trucation:

snapshot


So, watch out for the VERY possibility that Point-3 (which was ascribed speculatively at this point) may NOT be the rightful and final residence of the actual Point-3 ... Here is what you should keep in your mind's eyes:

Since the COndition #2 of the Geo is a complete EW's TZZ, then the internal impulse ("IMP") followed by a correction ("COR") offer a large reciprocal symmetry, such that:


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NOTE here that we are making use of the "Tolerance Line", which are the lines that would otherwise invalidate the Geo, IF price found itself outside. However, since it is still well within the geomtric field of the Geo and its projections, then you have a still-valid Geo.

Kapish?


(here again, I will look beyond your glazed, blood-shed eyes and take the moaning as an acquiescence).

D.
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Here, the task remains to ASSUME that the first version of the Geo may be valid, but to keep in mind that scenario which would prove us wrong - Always play this sort of strategy out in your mind. It's not a stop-loss we are defining, but a more elusive condition. Here, we use the "Tolerance Lines" as physical reminders, and we found out that we are still good to go.

D.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
So, now starts the WAITING game ... Just like in the ER ... Hurry up and wait.

In the mean time, here are THREE potential levels for Point-3:


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Remember that at this point, we are NOT interested in trading anything. Before we lay the egg, we are seeking a sturdy branch. That branch has to have all the conditions amenable to a fruitful outcome.

D.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
At this point, the Predictive/Forecasting Model tells me that a decline is probably underway (it's always a matter of probability, not opinion) - So, I ask YOU:

Would you trade this possibility - See chart?


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D.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
ANS:

Absolutely, if you trust that these lines are sturdy, purposeful geometric components of a "larger phenomenon"

(... Which, in my bias, they are).


D.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
As a new 15-minunte candle opens, price did a significant low as the "Model" expected a bearish inflection within the 1-2-3-4 range - Keep your mind open for other fast punches to the downside, while keeping price above that 2-4 Line - See updated chart:


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D.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
As we are working out the geometric contours of the Geo, here is another possibility, wherein Point-1 might find a loftier residence, IF and ONLY IF Point-3 were to exist at a higher speculated level - Again, we are keeping that CSF flowing here (this would not happen this rapidly a process given a higher timeframe, of course):


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D.
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David, would you trade the decline towards the 1 - 4 Line and then the rally to Point 3, or only the rally to Point 3 when and if the price reached the 2 - 4 Line? From a technical viewpoint where would you place your stops?
+1 Reply
Yes, the Predictive/Forecasting Model tells me so, so I do what it tells me.

The SL for a short would be right above the recent highs, since this is a proven zone of rejection ... Use "high" + spread + 2, 3, or 5 pips.

TG = 2-4 Line + spread + 2, 3, or 5 pips, depending on the variability in spread (i.e.: a fast moving price will its spread widen).

D.
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Excellent, thank you!
Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
David what exactly is "complex ZZ" and "TZZ"?
+2 Reply
Per Google: "Elliott + Wave + Correction + W + X + Y + XX"

- http://www.elliottwave.com/tutorial/Lesson3/3-5.htm

D.
+1 Reply
26 AUG 2015 - "Tunneling"

This is one important concept in the development of the Geo.

Simply put, there is a discreet development of a "path of least resistance" that is developing along the 1-4 Line, which is best defined using an anchoring reference along the way, which I have called the "Geo Anchor".

Here is the possible (not probable) "Tunneling" development:


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... And here is the Geo Anchor I have used as a probable confirmation level (green star):


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D.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Can't get any more flagrant than this, regarding the relevance of this 1-4 Line:


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D.
+3 Reply
26 AUG 2015 - Chart update;


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I moved Point-4 to that new nadir ... Basically, price did follow the forecast (dashed purple) line drawn - Expect buoyancy near this level to counter-act on price.

Point-4 is your new battle ground. 2.9250 offers a reasonable generic SL level.


David
+3 Reply
26 AUG 2015 - Chart update: * * * Geometry Invalidation * * *

Remember the "Tolerance Lines" discussed during the construction of the Geo?

Well, Here is a great illustration of their real purpose in a geometry invalidation:


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This means that we are done with this one and are moving on.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
As mentioned in the beginning, here the the alternate geometry - Although it might be one to consider, at this time, I would NOT seek any play in this, unless price completed the full 5-point regimen:


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David
+2 Reply
26 AUG 2015 - Chart update:

Possible pathway, using Geo's Off Set Rule:


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D.
+2 Reply
26 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:


Heed this simple reciprocal symmetry:


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D.
+5 Reply
bilk29 4xForecaster
Thank you wery gud Have you euro Tl analez
+1 Reply
26 AUG 2015 - Chart update:

Could this be it, then?

... Adjusting chart analysis to price swings ... Internal a-b-c ZZ just completed - Note how the a-to-c segment could also represent its own internal WW/Geo:


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D.
+4 Reply
27 AUG 2016 - Chart Update:

Invalidation occurred at lower tolerance line:


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I will close this thread and open a new one on this pair if and once there is a new M15 frame opp.

Thank you for following thus far.


David
+3 Reply
Max_N 4xForecaster
Thank you, David.
+2 Reply
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