As the $NZDJPY trade is well on its way (although, we are not assuming that it will reach targets, but only that we are moving along with the probability that it would do so - See its analysis and step-by-step developments here: ), we are now turning to another potential short.
Whereas the $NZDJPY was heavier on basic technical conditions (Fibonacci levels), as well as a few occult geometric concepts (nodes, nodules ... Feel free to Google these terms, as well as E.A.G.L.E. if you like to discover these concepts), the case of the $USD vs. $TRY is a bit more involved and complicated, since we are looking at the Geo .
What I would like to do here is to raise a few challenging questions, and after a few minutes, provide a simple and logical answer within the thread, hopefully keeping things as simple, linear and interesting as possible.
I am not interested in being right. I simply follow the rules that I have defined for the Geo , and I stick to the rules that are imposed by the developing Geo . It's that simple. There is no opinion, just objective data which you too can assimilate, ingest and regurgitate. Yum.
Let's start with a BLANK chart of $USDTRY ...
See you below.
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If you are used to the Wolfe Wave, you might possibly develop a flare for the Geo.
Here is the chart as a blank slate, besides a myriad of lines. Do not think of these are prices. Markets. Buyers, Sellers. Profit opps. Just look for a horizon line, that which is defined bu the highs and the lows (much as the skyline of a city - yes, cheezy, that is one way to look at things).
First, I transpose the bottom line, which I know to call the 2-4 Line (Don;t worry, we'll plot these points and name them later on, so as to not clutter the field).
I do NOT know where Point-4 might be as a final residence, but YOU will see that the Geo will require constant adjustment of the 2-4 Line, which is the most "abstract" line ... Until the 1-3 Line is crossed, that is, which would be the moment Point-5 is defined.
(I'll assume you 'kapished' that)
You should always be looking for things that can prove you wrong instead of being found by things that prove you wrong.
Here, I know that the Geo demands a certain set of conditions:
1 - The 1-2 Leg should represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry
(Oddly enough, you have to start with the cd segment FIRST, and seek a level of projection that defines Point-1 ... It'd be best if video'ed, but that'll be for another time. For now, it's a frame by frame deal you get.
2 - The 2-3 Leg should be an Elliott Wave complex ZZ, such as a TZZ ... Instead, we are getting this Bullish EW impulse, with a 5th wave trucation:
So, watch out for the VERY possibility that Point-3 (which was ascribed speculatively at this point) may NOT be the rightful and final residence of the actual Point-3 ... Here is what you should keep in your mind's eyes:
Since the COndition #2 of the Geo is a complete EW's TZZ, then the internal impulse ("IMP") followed by a correction ("COR") offer a large reciprocal symmetry, such that:
NOTE here that we are making use of the "Tolerance Line", which are the lines that would otherwise invalidate the Geo, IF price found itself outside. However, since it is still well within the geomtric field of the Geo and its projections, then you have a still-valid Geo.
(here again, I will look beyond your glazed, blood-shed eyes and take the moaning as an acquiescence).
In the mean time, here are THREE potential levels for Point-3:
Remember that at this point, we are NOT interested in trading anything. Before we lay the egg, we are seeking a sturdy branch. That branch has to have all the conditions amenable to a fruitful outcome.
The SL for a short would be right above the recent highs, since this is a proven zone of rejection ... Use "high" + spread + 2, 3, or 5 pips.
TG = 2-4 Line + spread + 2, 3, or 5 pips, depending on the variability in spread (i.e.: a fast moving price will its spread widen).
This is one important concept in the development of the Geo.
Simply put, there is a discreet development of a "path of least resistance" that is developing along the 1-4 Line, which is best defined using an anchoring reference along the way, which I have called the "Geo Anchor".
Here is the possible (not probable) "Tunneling" development:
... And here is the Geo Anchor I have used as a probable confirmation level (green star):
Remember the "Tolerance Lines" discussed during the construction of the Geo?
Well, Here is a great illustration of their real purpose in a geometry invalidation:
This means that we are done with this one and are moving on.