Hello everyone , as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
The WTI/USD closed at 74.64 last week dropping from 75.28 but the market is showing great strength , and the bears trying to stay in control . The market seems to be moving in an upward channel between the range of 83 and 63 with no breakouts yet . no signs of a reversal pattern yet .
for the daily basis seems like the price might drop a bit , but on a weekly chart the data is telling us that the market seems to be getting some momentum , where indicators are telling us the movement is still bullish , lets check that data :
1_Market price trending above then 10MA , 20MA and the EMA (bullish sign).
2_RSI at 71.31 sitting in overbought zone and showing great strength in the market (bullish sign).
3_MACD creating a positive crossover with the market price (bullish sign).
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1_71.43 1_77.66
2_68.07 2_80.53
3_65.20 3_83.89
Fundamental point of view :
Margaret Yang stated that :
Crude oil prices pulled back slightly during Monday’s APAC mid-day session after rising 3.5% over the last two days. The emergence of the Delta variant of Covid-19 is threatening a new round of lockdowns around the world, casting a shadow over the outlook for energy demand. A stronger US Dollar also weighed on commodity prices.
"Meanwhile, unresolved deadlock between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) remains a wildcard in the oil market. Traders are worried that escalated disputes may reignite a price war among OPEC+ members and hammer oil prices. On the other hand, a resolution may lend support for prices to aim at higher levels. This is because the planned 400k bpd production hike marks only a small fraction of an estimated global supply shortfall of 3 million bpd by the end of this year."
Oil and gas production is becoming a tedious business, like coal mining or nuclear power, after the hype of previous years. Weekly data shows an increase in drilling activity in the US oil and gas sector. However, new rigs are only enough to maintain production at 11m BPD since last September, after the peak in March 2020 above 13m b/d. Even two-year highs in prices and extremely favourable financial conditions on the markets do not inspire active expansion. Without the US as a contender for market share, the main balancing force is the OPEC cartel, whose overall policy is well within the new "standards" of boring oil producers: high dividends and slow-growing supply. If the production boom is behind us, we should expect a price boom along with a demand boom.
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This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view , not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask
Thank you for reading.
The WTI/USD closed at 74.64 last week dropping from 75.28 but the market is showing great strength , and the bears trying to stay in control . The market seems to be moving in an upward channel between the range of 83 and 63 with no breakouts yet . no signs of a reversal pattern yet .
for the daily basis seems like the price might drop a bit , but on a weekly chart the data is telling us that the market seems to be getting some momentum , where indicators are telling us the movement is still bullish , lets check that data :
1_Market price trending above then 10MA , 20MA and the EMA (bullish sign).
2_RSI at 71.31 sitting in overbought zone and showing great strength in the market (bullish sign).
3_MACD creating a positive crossover with the market price (bullish sign).
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1_71.43 1_77.66
2_68.07 2_80.53
3_65.20 3_83.89
Fundamental point of view :
Margaret Yang stated that :
Crude oil prices pulled back slightly during Monday’s APAC mid-day session after rising 3.5% over the last two days. The emergence of the Delta variant of Covid-19 is threatening a new round of lockdowns around the world, casting a shadow over the outlook for energy demand. A stronger US Dollar also weighed on commodity prices.
"Meanwhile, unresolved deadlock between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) remains a wildcard in the oil market. Traders are worried that escalated disputes may reignite a price war among OPEC+ members and hammer oil prices. On the other hand, a resolution may lend support for prices to aim at higher levels. This is because the planned 400k bpd production hike marks only a small fraction of an estimated global supply shortfall of 3 million bpd by the end of this year."
Oil and gas production is becoming a tedious business, like coal mining or nuclear power, after the hype of previous years. Weekly data shows an increase in drilling activity in the US oil and gas sector. However, new rigs are only enough to maintain production at 11m BPD since last September, after the peak in March 2020 above 13m b/d. Even two-year highs in prices and extremely favourable financial conditions on the markets do not inspire active expansion. Without the US as a contender for market share, the main balancing force is the OPEC cartel, whose overall policy is well within the new "standards" of boring oil producers: high dividends and slow-growing supply. If the production boom is behind us, we should expect a price boom along with a demand boom.
Make sure to Follow and Like for more content
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view , not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask
Thank you for reading.