FX:USDZAR   U.S. Dollar / South African Rand
Been playing this largely from the short side over the last few months. A few times I have looked for some sort of bounce but, as you can clearly see, that didn't work out well. Zooming out and looking at the big picture, it's pretty clear on the weeklies that USDZAR looks to be heading for a test of the 14.00 mark last seen around the end of Dec 2019. USDZAR is very oversold but it just can't rally. As this is largely not a Rand story, but rather a global reflation story, I suspect that we we would need some sort of global risk-off event to ignite the pair. There is a good chance that would be led by a US tech stock sell-off. Whilst there is still stimulus and lots of "money-printing" in the background, that still seems to be some months away. For now, you got to keep riding the bull run while you can. On the long term front, I'm also using these "cheap" levels in USD and CHF to sell ZAR and take money offshore. You get much more bang for your buck than when USDZAR was at 19 and CHFZAR at 19.50! Good luck out there and Merry Christmas!
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